US and Iran Near Historic Deal to End 106-Day War: What We Know About the Terms

The 106-day war between the United States and Iran appears to be reaching its final chapter. Following weeks of intense back-channel diplomacy mediated by Pakistan, officials from both Washington and Tehran signaled on Friday that a final text to end the conflict has been agreed upon.[1][8]

The stakes for the global economy and Middle Eastern stability are immense. The conflict, which erupted in late February following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime choke point that historically handles one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply.[7]

A senior US administration official briefed reporters that the White House is "80 to 85 percent" confident that an initial agreement will be signed in the coming days, with logistical preparations reportedly underway for a signing ceremony in Geneva.[3][8]

The core mechanism of the emerging deal rests on a phased, performance-based framework. According to US officials, the agreement mandates a 60-day ceasefire extension, during which Iran must begin dismantling its nuclear program and destroying its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.[3][4]

Highly enriched uranium is nuclear material processed to a purity level capable of being used in atomic weapons. The US insists that Iran must permanently commit to never procuring or developing a nuclear weapon, moving beyond the 10- or 20-year sunset clauses of previous diplomatic efforts.[4]

In exchange for these verifiable steps, the United States would gradually lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and begin unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets, while Iran would allow commercial traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz.[3][7]

However, the exact sequencing of these concessions remains a fierce battleground of contested narratives. On Friday, Iranian state media leaked a purported 14-point draft of the memorandum of understanding, which painted a vastly different picture of the terms.[3]

The Iranian leak claimed the US had agreed to an immediate lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days and the upfront release of $24 billion in frozen assets before any nuclear negotiations conclude.[3]

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took to state television to declare that Iran had emerged as the "winner of the war," asserting that the country would retain joint control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and that its leverage had only grown.[1][2]

US President Donald Trump swiftly dismissed the Iranian media reports as "fake news," stating on social media that the leaked terms had "nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing."[3]

US officials emphasize that the actual agreement is strictly conditional: Iran will receive economic benefits only after it demonstrates compliance with its nuclear obligations and ceases funding proxy militias across the region.[4][8]

The most volatile variable threatening to derail the agreement is the ongoing war in Lebanon. Iran has consistently demanded that any comprehensive ceasefire must include an end to Israeli military operations against Hezbollah, an Iranian-allied militia.[1][6]

The leaked Iranian draft explicitly calls for a "permanent and immediate ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon," framing the protection of its regional allies as a non-negotiable component of the peace deal.[3]

Israel, however, is not a party to the US-Iran negotiations and has forcefully rejected any terms that would constrain its military objectives on its northern border.[5][6]

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on Friday that Israel will not withdraw from its designated "security zones" in southern Lebanon, where it has deployed ground forces and issued sweeping evacuation orders to push Hezbollah away from the Israeli border.[3][5]

When pressed on the Lebanon issue, US officials acknowledged that the broader regional peace agreement encompasses Lebanon, Israel, and the Gulf states, but stressed that it does not deprive Israel of its right to self-defense.[4][5]

If Hezbollah continues to fire rockets into Israel, Washington expects Israel to respond, placing the burden on Tehran to rein in its proxies if it wishes to secure the promised sanctions relief.[5]

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government has taken the lead in mediating the talks, warned against efforts to sabotage the fragile consensus, noting that "peace has never been this close as it is now."[8]

As logistics are arranged for a potential signing ceremony—with US Air Force transport planes reportedly moving equipment to Europe for Vice President JD Vance—the world watches to see if the written text can survive the turbulent realities of the Middle East.[8]

Ultimately, the success of the deal will depend not just on signatures in Geneva, but on whether the complex web of regional alliances, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Lebanese border, can be simultaneously pacified.[2][6]