Forecasts
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Macroeconomics
WTO Doubles 2026 Global Merchandise Trade Forecast to 3.9 Percent on AI Infrastructure Boom
8 sources · 12d ago
Cancer Research
WHO Analysis Finds Preventable Infections Cause One in Eight Cancer Cases Worldwide
6 sources · 20d ago
Systemic Risk
IMF Warns $13 Trillion Hedge Fund Footprint Poses Risk to Global Market Stability
4 sources · 12d ago
More in Forecasts
ExplainerPredictive Modeling
How Non-Negative Spline Constraints Prevent Quantile Crossing in Additive Models
Theoretical Statisticians 40%Applied Data Scientists 35%Ecological Modelers 25%
Deep DiveForecasting Metrics
Zero-Inflated Intermittent Demand Distorts MAPE Toward Infinity, Mandating Scaled Errors for Spare Parts Inventory
Modern Forecasting Theorists 45%Supply Chain Practitioners 35%Statistical Traditionalists 20%
ExplainerForecast Evaluation
Why Multi-Step Forecasts Require Diebold-Mariano HAC Adjustments to Prevent False Model Comparisons
Econometricians 40%Applied Forecasters 35%Machine Learning Practitioners 25%
ExplainerLoss Functions
Minimizing Absolute Error Targets the Median Rather Than the Mean: Why MAE Evaluation Causes Systematic Underforecasting in Right-Skewed Data
Aggregate Forecasters 40%Robustness Advocates 35%Bias Correction Proponents 25%
Energy TransitionIRENA
IRENA Models $256 Trillion Energy Transition Pathway to Reverse Global 1.5C Overshoot
Renewable Energy Advocates 35%Grid Infrastructure Planners 35%Energy Transition Analysts 30%
Macroeconomic ForecastTrend Analysis
Global Economic Growth Upgraded to 2.9% as AI Investment Offsets Energy Shocks
Macroeconomic Optimists 40%Inflation Hawks 40%Trade Risk Analysts 20%
Research BriefForecast Math
Why the Hurricane Cone of Uncertainty Scales with the Square Root of Time
Meteorological Forecasters 40%Financial Quants 35%Supply Chain Analysts 25%
Inflation WatchEconomic Sentiment
U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations Jump to 4.6% in Preliminary September Data
Monetary Policy Analysts 40%Consumer Behavior Researchers 35%Market Forecasters 25%
ExplainerMacroeconomic Modeling
Setting Lambda in the Hodrick-Prescott Filter to Balance Fit and Smoothness
Traditional Macroeconomists 40%Time-Series Skeptics 40%Software Implementers 20%
ExplainerForecast Metrics
Why Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is Biased and How SMAPE Attempts to Correct It
Statistical Methodologists 60%Forecasting Practitioners 40%
Research BriefYield Curve
Evidence Pack: The Accuracy of the Yield Curve Inversion as a Recession Forecaster in the Era of Quantitative Easing
Structural Adjustment Theorists 40%Traditional Forecasters 30%Macroeconomic Pragmatists 30%
ExplainerTime Series Analysis
How Granger Causality Tests for Predictive Precedence, Not True Causal Influence
Forecasting Practitioners 40%Causal Inference Theorists 40%Statistical Methodologists 20%
ExplainerTime-Series AI
Zero-Shot Time-Series Foundation Models Now Match or Outperform Custom Algorithms
Foundation Model Developers 60%Quantitative Finance Skeptics 40%
Research BriefSeismology AI
The Accuracy of Deep Learning Versus ETAS in Earthquake Aftershock Forecasting
Statistical Seismologists 35%Machine Learning Researchers 35%Operational Forecasters 30%
Research BriefWastewater Epidemiology
Evidence Pack: The Accuracy of Wastewater Surveillance in Forecasting Regional Viral Outbreaks
Epidemiological Modelers 40%Public Health Officials 35%Municipal Utility Operators 25%
ExplainerSpatial Statistics
How Moran's I Quantifies Spatial Clustering and Invalidates Standard Regression Assumptions on Geographic Data
Spatial Econometricians 45%GIS Analysts 40%Classical Statisticians 15%
ExplainerEvaluation Metrics
RMSE Squares Forecast Errors to Penalize Outliers More Severely Than Linear MAE
Robust Statistics Advocates 50%Risk-Averse Forecasters 50%
ExplainerAlgorithm Mechanics
Kalman Filters Fuse Physical Models and Sensor Data to Minimize State Estimation Error
Control Systems Engineers 40%Data Scientists 30%Robotics Developers 30%
ExplainerCausal Inference
How Three Mathematical Conditions Validate an Instrumental Variable
Econometric Purists 40%Applied Policy Evaluators 30%Epidemiological Methodologists 30%
ExplainerTime Series
Deconstructing ARIMA: How Autoregression, Differencing, and Moving Averages Combine to Forecast Time Series Data
Classical Statisticians 40%Business Forecasters 35%Machine Learning Practitioners 25%
Research BriefAI Weather Models
Evidence Pack: The Accuracy and Limits of AI Weather Forecasting Models
AI Research Labs 45%National Forecasting Agencies 35%Atmospheric Physicists 20%
ExplainerCausal Inference
Using Difference-in-Differences to Isolate Causal Effects from Observational Data
Applied Economists 40%Causal Inference Skeptics 30%Public Health Evaluators 30%
ExplainerModel Generalization
How Bias and Variance Drive Underfitting, Overfitting, and Model Generalization
Classical Statisticians 35%Deep Learning Researchers 35%Applied Data Scientists 30%
ExplainerPredictive Modeling
Why R-Squared, RMSE, and Cross-Validation Are Needed to Measure True Model Accuracy
Machine Learning Engineers 35%Applied Researchers 35%Statistical Traditionalists 30%
ExplainerEconomic Metrics
Why Countries With Identical Gini Scores Can Have Vastly Different Economies
Welfare Policy Analysts 40%Structural Economists 35%Development Economists 25%
Search TrafficEvidence Pack
Publishers Forecast 43% Drop in Google Search Traffic Over Three Years Due to AI Overviews
Media Executives & Publishers 45%Search Data Analysts 35%Search Platform Operators 20%
ExplainerClimate Finance
Global Climate Finance Crosses $2 Trillion Milestone, But $7.8 Trillion Annual Gap Remains
Climate Policy & Data Researchers 40%Developing Economy Advocates 35%Market & Finance Analysts 25%
Research BriefMigration Data
IOM Data: Migrant Deaths Double on Key Routes in 2026 as Arrivals Fall Sharply
Humanitarian Organizations 40%Border Enforcement Advocates 35%Climate and Environmental Analysts 25%
Macroeconomics
JPM Data Forecasts US Core Inflation to Hit 3.4% Due to Strait of Hormuz Supply Shock
Macroeconomic Forecasters 40%Supply Chain Analysts 35%Agricultural Economists 25%
ExplainerPublic Health Data
CDC Data Strategy Targets 86% of US Emergency Departments for Real-Time Data Access by Year-End
Public Health Officials 40%Epidemiological Modelers 30%Healthcare Technologists 30%
Research BriefAgentic AI
Data Analysis Forecast: Agentic AI Orchestration Cuts Data-to-Decision Cycles From Days to Hours
Workflow Automation Researchers 40%Enterprise AI Strategists 35%AI Safety & Governance Advocates 25%
Global DebtEvidence Pack
Evidence Pack: Developing Nations Paid $741 Billion More in Debt Service Than Received in New Financing
Multilateral Institutions 40%Development Economists 35%Editorial Synthesis 25%
Global NutritionForecast Analysis
UN Data Finds World Hunger Fell for Third Straight Year in 2025, With First Decline in Africa in a Decade
UN Agencies & Public Health Officials 40%Humanitarian & Aid Organizations 35%Agricultural Economists 25%
Naval ProcurementEvidence Pack
Inside the CBO Data: How the Navy's $275 Billion Battleship Plan Stresses US Shipbuilding
Defense Industrial Base 35%Fiscal Watchdogs 35%Naval Strategists 30%
Supply Chain DataEvidence Pack
New York Fed Data: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Falls to Four-Month Low of 0.79 in July
Macroeconomic Forecasters 40%Logistics & Shipping Operators 30%Corporate Supply Chain Managers 30%
Deficit Data
CBO Forecasting Models: Tracking the $1.8 Trillion Gap and Upward FY 2026 Revision
Federal Forecasters 40%Fiscal Watchdogs 40%Market Analysts 20%
Inflation DataTrend Analysis
BLS Data: US Inflation Rate Slows to 3.4% in July, Core CPI Hits 2.5%
Core Disinflation Optimists 44%Purchasing Power Skeptics 31%Housing Affordability Watchers 25%
Labor EconomicsEvidence Pack
US Productivity Jumps 2.2% in Q2 2026 as Hours Worked Stagnate, BLS Data Shows
Macroeconomists & Policymakers 40%Labor Economists 35%Technology Analysts 25%
Economic GrowthEvidence Pack
BEA Data Shows US GDP Growth Slowed to 1.5% in Q2 2026 Amid Import Surge
Macroeconomic Caution 40%Domestic Resilience 40%Global Trade Focus 20%
Research BriefClimate Modeling
How New Data Models Forecast a 58% Weakening of the Atlantic Ocean Current by 2100
Observational Oceanographers 35%Climate Modelers 35%Paleoclimatologists 30%
Research BriefEconomic Forecast
Deloitte Revises Long-Term US GDP Forecast Higher on Stronger AI-Led Productivity Gains
Macroeconomic Optimists 44%Sector & Labor Analysts 33%Structural Skeptics 22%
Labor MarketEvidence Pack
Apollo Data: AI Exposure Linked to 6.7% Decline in Real Wage Growth for High-Risk Jobs Since 2023
Macroeconomists & Researchers 40%Labor & Workforce Advocates 40%Methodological Skeptics 20%
AI InfrastructureForecast Revision
Hyperscaler AI Capital Expenditure Forecast Jumps to $1.16 Trillion by 2027, Doubling Previous Estimates
Hyperscaler Bulls 40%Financial Skeptics 30%Infrastructure & Hardware Analysts 30%
Climate ModelingForecast Analysis
WMO Forecast: 70% Chance Global Average Temperature Will Breach 1.5°C Threshold Between 2025 and 2029
Climate Forecasters & Modelers 40%Policy & Diplomacy Advocates 30%Climate Risk Analysts 30%
AI MeteorologyEvidence Pack
DeepMind's WeatherNext 2 AI Model Rewrites the Standard for Extreme Weather Forecasting
AI Meteorologists 40%Operational Forecasters 35%Climate Resilience Planners 25%
Research BriefWastewater Surveillance
Wastewater Surveillance and Predictive Models Forecast Outbreaks Weeks in Advance
Public Health Epidemiologists 40%Data Scientists & Modelers 35%Rural Health Advocates 25%
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