Forecasts

All Data & Analysis Data Analysis Charts Polling Rankings Evidence Packs Forecasts Methodology

ExplainerEvaluation Metrics

How the Quadratic Penalty in RMSE Forecast Evaluation Punishes Outliers Compared to MAE's Linear Loss

Robust Statistics Advocates 50%Risk-Averse Forecasters 50%

5 sources · 5h ago

Explainer

How the Kalman Filter's Predict-Update Cycle Minimizes Error in Time-Series State Estimation

10 sources · 1d ago

Explainer

How Three Mathematical Conditions Validate an Instrumental Variable

7 sources · 2d ago

Explainer

Deconstructing ARIMA: How Autoregression, Differencing, and Moving Averages Combine to Forecast Time Series Data

7 sources · 3d ago

More in Forecasts

Research BriefAI Weather Models

Evidence Pack: The Accuracy and Limits of AI Weather Forecasting Models

AI Research Labs 45%National Forecasting Agencies 35%Atmospheric Physicists 20%

6 sources · 4d ago

ExplainerCausal Inference

The Mechanics of Difference-in-Differences: How Quasi-Experimental Design Isolates the Causal Effect of an Intervention

Applied Economists 40%Causal Inference Skeptics 30%Public Health Evaluators 30%

7 sources · 5d ago

ExplainerModel Generalization

The Mechanics of the Bias-Variance Tradeoff: How Underfitting and Overfitting Determine Model Generalization

Classical Statisticians 35%Deep Learning Researchers 35%Applied Data Scientists 30%

9 sources · 6d ago

ExplainerPredictive Modeling

The Mechanics of Model Performance: Comparing R-Squared, RMSE, and Cross-Validation

Machine Learning Engineers 35%Applied Researchers 35%Statistical Traditionalists 30%

7 sources · 7d ago

ExplainerEconomic Metrics

The Mechanics of the Gini Coefficient: How Income Inequality is Measured and Compared Globally

Welfare Policy Analysts 40%Structural Economists 35%Development Economists 25%

5 sources · 8d ago

Search TrafficEvidence Pack

Publishers Forecast 43% Drop in Google Search Traffic Over Three Years Due to AI Overviews

Media Executives & Publishers 45%Search Data Analysts 35%Search Platform Operators 20%

8 sources · 9d ago

ExplainerClimate Finance

Global Climate Finance Crosses $2 Trillion Milestone, But $7.8 Trillion Annual Gap Remains

Climate Policy & Data Researchers 40%Developing Economy Advocates 35%Market & Finance Analysts 25%

7 sources · 10d ago

Fiscal PolicyEvidence Pack

CBO Forecasts US Budget Deficit to Hit $1.9 Trillion, Pushing Debt-to-GDP Past 100% in 2026

Nonpartisan Forecasters 38%Fiscal Watchdogs 38%Market Analysts 25%

6 sources · 12d ago

Research BriefMigration Data

IOM Data: Migrant Deaths Double on Key Routes in 2026 as Arrivals Fall Sharply

Humanitarian Organizations 40%Border Enforcement Advocates 35%Climate and Environmental Analysts 25%

2 sources · 13d ago

MacroeconomicsExplainer

JPM Data Forecasts US Core Inflation to Hit 3.4% Due to Strait of Hormuz Supply Shock

Macroeconomic Forecasters 40%Supply Chain Analysts 35%Agricultural Economists 25%

6 sources · 14d ago

ExplainerPublic Health Data

CDC Data Strategy Targets 86% of US Emergency Departments for Real-Time Data Access by Year-End

Public Health Officials 40%Epidemiological Modelers 30%Healthcare Technologists 30%

2 sources · 15d ago

Research BriefAgentic AI

Data Analysis Forecast: Agentic AI Orchestration Cuts Data-to-Decision Cycles From Days to Hours

Workflow Automation Researchers 40%Enterprise AI Strategists 35%AI Safety & Governance Advocates 25%

4 sources · 16d ago

Global DebtEvidence Pack

Evidence Pack: Developing Nations Paid $741 Billion More in Debt Service Than Received in New Financing

Multilateral Institutions 40%Development Economists 35%Editorial Synthesis 25%

6 sources · 17d ago

Global NutritionForecast Analysis

UN Data Finds World Hunger Fell for Third Straight Year in 2025, With First Decline in Africa in a Decade

UN Agencies & Public Health Officials 40%Humanitarian & Aid Organizations 35%Agricultural Economists 25%

4 sources · 18d ago

Naval ProcurementEvidence Pack

Inside the CBO Data: How the Navy's $275 Billion Battleship Plan Stresses US Shipbuilding

Defense Industrial Base 35%Fiscal Watchdogs 35%Naval Strategists 30%

8 sources · 20d ago

Supply Chain DataEvidence Pack

New York Fed Data: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Falls to Four-Month Low of 0.79 in July

Macroeconomic Forecasters 40%Logistics & Shipping Operators 30%Corporate Supply Chain Managers 30%

7 sources · 21d ago

Deficit DataExplainer

How the CBO Forecasts the Federal Deficit: Inside the $1.8 Trillion July Data

Federal Forecasters 40%Fiscal Watchdogs 40%Market Analysts 20%

7 sources · 22d ago

Inflation DataTrend Analysis

BLS Data: US Inflation Rate Slows to 3.4% in July, Core CPI Hits 2.5%

Core Disinflation Optimists 44%Purchasing Power Skeptics 31%Housing Affordability Watchers 25%

6 sources · 24d ago

Labor EconomicsEvidence Pack

US Productivity Jumps 2.2% in Q2 2026 as Hours Worked Stagnate, BLS Data Shows

Macroeconomists & Policymakers 40%Labor Economists 35%Technology Analysts 25%

7 sources · 27d ago

Economic GrowthEvidence Pack

BEA Data Shows US GDP Growth Slowed to 1.5% in Q2 2026 Amid Import Surge

Macroeconomic Caution 40%Domestic Resilience 40%Global Trade Focus 20%

6 sources · 28d ago

Research BriefClimate Modeling

How New Data Models Forecast a 58% Weakening of the Atlantic Ocean Current by 2100

Observational Oceanographers 35%Climate Modelers 35%Paleoclimatologists 30%

7 sources · 30d ago

Research BriefEconomic Forecast

Deloitte Revises Long-Term US GDP Forecast Higher on Stronger AI-Led Productivity Gains

Macroeconomic Optimists 44%Sector & Labor Analysts 33%Structural Skeptics 22%

5 sources · 34d ago

Labor MarketEvidence Pack

Apollo Data: AI Exposure Linked to 6.7% Decline in Real Wage Growth for High-Risk Jobs Since 2023

Macroeconomists & Researchers 40%Labor & Workforce Advocates 40%Methodological Skeptics 20%

4 sources · 35d ago

AI InfrastructureForecast Revision

Hyperscaler AI Capital Expenditure Forecast Jumps to $1.16 Trillion by 2027, Doubling Previous Estimates

Hyperscaler Bulls 40%Financial Skeptics 30%Infrastructure & Hardware Analysts 30%

4 sources · 36d ago

Research BriefAI Meteorology

The Evidence Pack: AI Weather Models Achieve Operational Status, Cutting Forecast Times to Seconds

Meteorological Agencies 40%AI Researchers 35%Climate Risk Analysts 25%

2 sources · 53d ago

Climate ModelingForecast Analysis

WMO Forecast: 70% Chance Global Average Temperature Will Breach 1.5°C Threshold Between 2025 and 2029

Climate Forecasters & Modelers 40%Policy & Diplomacy Advocates 30%Climate Risk Analysts 30%

3 sources · 72d ago

AI MeteorologyEvidence Pack

DeepMind's WeatherNext 2 AI Model Rewrites the Standard for Extreme Weather Forecasting

AI Meteorologists 40%Operational Forecasters 35%Climate Resilience Planners 25%

4 sources · 74d ago

Research BriefWastewater Surveillance

The Evidence Pack: How Wastewater Data and AI Models Are Forecasting Disease Outbreaks Weeks in Advance

Public Health Epidemiologists 40%Data Scientists & Modelers 35%Rural Health Advocates 25%

6 sources · 75d ago

ExplainerAlternative Data

The Evidence Pack: How Real-Time 'Nowcasting' is Replacing Traditional Economic Forecasts

Algorithmic Forecasters 40%Traditional Macroeconomists 30%Central Bank Policymakers 30%

6 sources · 75d ago

Grid TransitionEvidence Pack

Renewables Officially Overtake Coal as the World's Primary Source of Electricity

Clean Energy Analysts 45%Grid & Infrastructure Planners 35%Emerging Market Advocates 20%

4 sources · 75d ago

Global Wealth GapEvidence Pack

The Evidence Pack: World Bank Data Shows Half of Developing Economies Failing to Narrow Income Gap Since 2019

Multilateral Institutions 40%Developing Economy Policymakers 30%Market Analysts 30%

5 sources · 56d ago

Deep DiveGrid Decarbonization

Renewables Overtake Coal as Clean Power Meets 100% of New Global Electricity Demand

Clean Energy Forecasters 39%System Reliability Planners 33%Total Emissions Trackers 28%

6 sources · 80d ago

Research BriefEnergy Transition

The 2026 Evidence Pack: How Solar and Batteries Are Rewriting Global Energy Forecasts

Clean Energy Analysts 45%Institutional Forecasters 35%Market Pragmatists 20%

4 sources · 81d ago

Energy StorageForecast Revision

Battery Costs Plunge Faster Than Forecasts, Triggering Massive Upward Revisions for Global Energy Storage

Energy Forecasters & Modelers 40%Clean Tech Industry Advocates 35%Market Pragmatists 25%

6 sources · 84d ago

Research BriefEnergy Transition

Renewables Officially Overtake Coal as Global Solar and Wind Forecasts Accelerate

Energy Transition Optimists 55%Market Realists 45%

5 sources · 84d ago

Energy TransitionTrend Analysis

Global Energy Forecasts Revised Upward as Solar and Battery Deployment Smash Records

Energy Market Analysts 40%Climate Data Trackers 35%Transition Optimists 25%

5 sources · 91d ago

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