Predictions & Forecasts
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Trade
NBA Trade Market Accelerates: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ja Morant Headline Offseason Rumors
3 sources · 137d ago
Foldable Phones
Are Foldable Phones Finally Worth Buying in 2026?
3 sources · 144d ago
AI Evaluation
Chatbot Arena vs. Static Benchmarks: How the AI Industry Ranks Intelligence in 2026
3 sources · 136d ago
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ExplainerStatistical Forecasting
Extreme Forecast Aggregation Bypasses Overconfidence by Extremizing Consensus Probabilities
Decision Scientists 40%Behavioral Economists 35%Forecasting Practitioners 25%
ExplainerProbability Calibration
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Operational Decision Makers 40%Statistical Forecasters 35%Machine Learning Theorists 25%
ExplainerAd Tech Infrastructure
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Systems Engineers 35%Machine Learning Researchers 35%Ad Platform Operators 30%
ExplainerConformal Prediction
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Applied ML Engineers 40%Theoretical Statisticians 35%AI Safety Researchers 25%
ExplainerAd Tech
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Machine Learning Engineers 40%Ad Auction Economists 35%Data Scientists 25%
ExplainerClick Prediction
How Odds-Ratio Recalibration Restores Click Probabilities Distorted by Negative Downsampling
Machine Learning Engineers 40%Ad Auction Economists 35%Advertisers and Media Buyers 25%
ExplainerCollective Intelligence
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Behavioral Economists 40%Data Scientists 35%Platform Moderators 25%
ExplainerExtreme Value Theory
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Actuarial and Reliability Engineers 40%Financial Risk Analysts 30%Mathematical Statisticians 30%
ExplainerChaos Theory
The Lyapunov Exponent That Quantifies the Rate of Divergence in Chaotic Systems
Mathematical Theorists 40%Applied Forecasters 35%Systems Analysts 25%
ExplainerDecision Science
How Signal Detection Theory Separates a Predictor's Sensitivity from Their Reporting Bias
Diagnostic Medicine 35%Behavioral & Psychological Research 35%Statistical & Algorithmic Evaluation 30%
ExplainerCollective Intelligence
Diversity Prediction Theorem: Why Cognitive Variance Directly Cuts Collective Error
Mathematical Sociologists 39%Corporate Strategists 39%Epistemic Democrats 22%
ExplainerAI Safety
How Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Separate Inherent Randomness from Lack of Knowledge
Modern AI Safety Researchers 40%Structural Engineers 30%Classical ML Theorists 30%
ExplainerRisk Management
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Risk-Adjusted Practitioners 45%Quantitative Purists 40%Market Skeptics 15%
ExplainerComplex Systems
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Complexity Researchers 45%Adaptive Management Practitioners 30%Predictive Analytics Vendors 25%
ExplainerProbability Theory
Brier Score Decomposition Splits Forecast Error into Reliability and Resolution
Statistical Purists 40%Clinical Risk Modelers 35%Machine Learning Pragmatists 25%
AI Forecasting
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Commercial AI Forecasters 40%Benchmark Administrators 35%Human Superforecasters 25%
ExplainerProbability Models
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Bayesian Purists 40%Neuro-Bayesians 35%Algorithmic Skeptics 25%
ExplainerElection Mechanics
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Election Security Advocates 40%Direct Democracy Proponents 40%Constitutional Originalists 20%
ExplainerGlobal Governance
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Developing Nations (Global South) 40%Developed Nations (Global North) 30%Multilateral Reformers 30%
ExplainerNuclear Policy
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Non-Proliferation Advocates 40%AUKUS Proponents 30%Safeguards Technocrats 30%
ExplainerGalaxy Evolution
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Cosmologists 40%Stellar Astrophysicists 40%Skeptical Observationalists 20%
ExplainerOrigin of Life
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Evolutionary Biochemists 45%Astrobiologists 30%Traditional LUCA Proponents 25%
Birthright Citizenship
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Jus Soli Traditionalists 60%Statutory Interpreters 20%Civic Administrators 20%
Caspian Sea
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Security Pragmatists 40%Resource Nationalists 30%Regional Integration Advocates 30%
Market Infrastructure
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European Regulators 35%Banking and Brokerage Industry 35%Financial Market Infrastructure 30%
Secondary Sanctions
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Sanctions Advocates 40%Energy Importers 30%Trade Skeptics 30%
ExplainerArctic Shipping
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NATO & Allied Defense 40%Strategic Competitors 35%Commercial & Maritime Analysts 25%
ExplainerOcean Governance
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Conservation Advocates 40%Developing Nations & Scientists 35%Commercial Fishing Interests 25%
ExplainerIndustrial Policy
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State-Capacity Advocates 41%Free-Market Traditionalists 35%Geopolitical Realists 24%
ExplainerCancer Screening
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Diagnostic Innovators 38%Clinical Radiologists 31%Public Health Regulators 31%
ExplainerEconomic Paradigm
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Post-Neoliberal Economists 41%Domestic Industry Advocates 29%Global Development Strategists 29%
Ocean Chemistry
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Earth System Scientists 40%Marine Biologists 35%Climate Policy Advocates 25%
ExplainerCritical Minerals
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Resource Nationalism Advocates 40%Global Supply Chain Strategists 30%Demographic Economists 30%
ExplainerMetascience
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Metascience Advocates 40%AI Forecasting Developers 35%Epistemic Skeptics 25%
ExplainerPrediction Markets
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Hybrid Forecasters 40%Automated Forecasting Proponents 35%Market Purists 25%
ExplainerForecasting Science
Why Trained Superforecasters Consistently Outperform Intelligence Analysts
Cognitive Forecasters 40%Meta-Science Researchers 35%AI Integration Optimists 25%
ExplainerPrediction Markets
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Market Advocates & Forecasters 41%Scientific & Academic Researchers 35%Skeptics & Ethicists 24%
ExplainerPrediction Science
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Institutional Strategists 35%Forecasting Technologists 35%Cognitive & Behavioral Researchers 30%
ExplainerForecasting Science
Superforecasters Combine Structured Reasoning and AI to Predict Global Events
Human-Centric Forecasters 39%AI Optimists 39%Market Advocates 22%
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Defenders Faithful 35%Kings Supporters 35%Spring Football Analysts 30%
PreviewNHL
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Vegas Supporters 35%Carolina Supporters 35%Neutral Analysts 30%