Predictions & Forecasts
AI Forecasting
How AI Agents Are Matching Human Superforecasters
4 sources · 2d ago
Explainer
The Mechanics of Bayesian Inference: How Prior Beliefs are Updated with New Evidence to Make Predictions
5 sources · 5d ago
Explainer
The Mechanics of the Electoral College: How the US President is Actually Elected and the Role of Faithless Electors
10 sources · 7d ago
More in Predictions & Forecasts
ExplainerGlobal Governance
How the UN Pact for the Future's Implementation Rewrites the Rules of Global Governance and International Finance
Developing Nations (Global South) 40%Developed Nations (Global North) 30%Multilateral Reformers 30%
7 sources · 10d ago
ExplainerNuclear Policy
How the AUKUS Naval Nuclear Propulsion Agreement Rewrites the Rules of Global Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Non-Proliferation Advocates 40%AUKUS Proponents 30%Safeguards Technocrats 30%
2 sources · 12d ago
ExplainerGalaxy Evolution
How Gaia's Discovery That the Stellar Mass Ratio Varies Rewrites the 50-Year-Old Rules of Star Formation
Cosmologists 40%Stellar Astrophysicists 40%Skeptical Observationalists 20%
6 sources · 15d ago
ExplainerOrigin of Life
How the Discovery of Two Independent Origins of Life Rewrites the Rules of Biology and Exobiology
Evolutionary Biochemists 45%Astrobiologists 30%Traditional LUCA Proponents 25%
6 sources · 18d ago
Physical AIPolicy Explainer
FCC Bans Foreign-Made Advanced Robotics, Rewriting the Rules of Physical AI Supply Chains and National Security
National Security Officials 40%Domestic Robotics Manufacturers 30%Consumer Market Skeptics 30%
8 sources · 20d ago
Birthright CitizenshipExplainer
How the Supreme Court's Birthright Citizenship Ruling Solidifies the 14th Amendment's 'Jus Soli' Principle
Jus Soli Traditionalists 60%Statutory Interpreters 20%Civic Administrators 20%
7 sources · 24d ago
Caspian SeaExplainer
Iran Advances Caspian Sea Pact, Formalizing Ban on Outside Military and Setting Stage for Seabed Conflict
Security Pragmatists 40%Resource Nationalists 30%Regional Integration Advocates 30%
8 sources · 29d ago
Market InfrastructureExplainer
EU Commission Adopts T+1 Settlement Rules, Forcing Systemic Overhaul of European Financial Markets
European Regulators 35%Banking and Brokerage Industry 35%Financial Market Infrastructure 30%
4 sources · 33d ago
Secondary SanctionsExplainer
How the Senate's New 100% Tariff Bill Aims to Rewire the Global Trade of Russian Oil
Sanctions Advocates 40%Energy Importers 30%Trade Skeptics 30%
6 sources · 35d ago
ExplainerArctic Shipping
The Arctic Meltdown: How Receding Ice is Rewriting Global Trade and NATO Defense
NATO & Allied Defense 40%Strategic Competitors 35%Commercial & Maritime Analysts 25%
3 sources · 35d ago
ExplainerOcean Governance
The High Seas Treaty Enters Into Force, Rewriting the Rules for 60% of the Planet
Conservation Advocates 40%Developing Nations & Scientists 35%Commercial Fishing Interests 25%
7 sources · 42d ago
ExplainerIndustrial Policy
The End of Laissez-Faire: How the Global Adoption of the U.S. Industrial Strategy Rewrites the Relationship Between State and Market
State-Capacity Advocates 41%Free-Market Traditionalists 35%Geopolitical Realists 24%
4 sources · 44d ago
ExplainerCancer Screening
The End of Symptom-Based Diagnosis: How the Universal Cancer Blood Test Rewrites Modern Medicine
Diagnostic Innovators 38%Clinical Radiologists 31%Public Health Regulators 31%
4 sources · 54d ago
ExplainerEconomic Paradigm
The End of Neoliberalism: How the Rise of 'Productivism' is Rewriting Global Economic Policy
Post-Neoliberal Economists 41%Domestic Industry Advocates 29%Global Development Strategists 29%
4 sources · 57d ago
Ocean ChemistryExplainer
The Seventh Boundary: How Ocean Acidification's Irreversible Crossing Rewrites the Timeline for Marine Collapse
Earth System Scientists 40%Marine Biologists 35%Climate Policy Advocates 25%
5 sources · 57d ago
ExplainerCritical Minerals
Africa's New Economic Pole: How Demographics and Critical Minerals Are Rewriting Global Growth
Resource Nationalism Advocates 40%Global Supply Chain Strategists 30%Demographic Economists 30%
3 sources · 59d ago
ExplainerMetascience
How AI Superforecasters Are Predicting the Replicability of Scientific Research
Metascience Advocates 40%AI Forecasting Developers 35%Epistemic Skeptics 25%
4 sources · 82d ago
ExplainerPrediction Markets
How AI and Human Superforecasters Are Teaming Up to Predict Global Events
Hybrid Forecasters 40%Automated Forecasting Proponents 35%Market Purists 25%
8 sources · 82d ago
ExplainerForecasting Science
The Science of Superforecasting: How Prediction is Becoming a Trainable Skill
Cognitive Forecasters 40%Meta-Science Researchers 35%AI Integration Optimists 25%
7 sources · 82d ago
ExplainerPrediction Markets
How Prediction Markets Are Becoming the Internet's 'Truth Engine' for Science and Society
Market Advocates & Forecasters 41%Scientific & Academic Researchers 35%Skeptics & Ethicists 24%
7 sources · 84d ago
ExplainerPrediction Science
How to Think Like a Superforecaster: The Science of Predicting the Future
Institutional Strategists 35%Forecasting Technologists 35%Cognitive & Behavioral Researchers 30%
4 sources · 84d ago
ExplainerForecasting Science
The Science of Superforecasting: How Humans and AI Are Learning to Predict the Future
Human-Centric Forecasters 39%AI Optimists 39%Market Advocates 22%
5 sources · 91d ago