U.S. and Iran Signal Deal to End War is Close as Draft Terms Emerge

After 106 days of a conflict that has choked global shipping and spiked energy markets, the United States and Iran appear on the verge of a diplomatic breakthrough. U.S. and Iranian officials have signaled that a memorandum of understanding to halt the war is nearly complete, with a signing ceremony potentially taking place in Geneva as soon as this weekend.[1][3][6]

The tentative agreement centers on a 60-day ceasefire extension that would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels without transit tolls. In exchange, the United States would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and begin issuing temporary waivers to allow Tehran to resume oil exports.[3][5]

The diplomatic pivot follows a volatile week of military brinkmanship. On Thursday, U.S. forces were poised to launch a third consecutive day of airstrikes against Iranian targets, with President Donald Trump publicly threatening to seize Kharg Island, Iran's critical oil export hub. Hours later, the strikes were abruptly called off as the administration announced that a settlement was within reach.[5][6]

"The strait will officially open as soon as we sign, which could be soon, very soon," Trump told reporters at the White House, adding that Vice President JD Vance would travel to Europe to finalize the pact alongside Iranian representatives.[3][4]

The war, which erupted in late February following joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military installations, quickly escalated into a severe economic chokepoint. Iran retaliated by heavily mining the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway that typically handles a fifth of the world's daily oil consumption—effectively severing a vital global energy artery and forcing the U.S. to implement a strict naval blockade.[1][2][3]

Under the leaked terms of the draft memorandum, Iran has committed to clearing the mines it deployed in the strait to restore pre-war shipping volumes within 30 days. The U.S. has agreed to a phased unfreezing of billions of dollars in Iranian assets, tying the financial relief directly to Tehran's compliance with the waterway's reopening.[3][5]

However, the two sides have presented sharply divergent narratives regarding Iran's nuclear program. Trump has repeatedly assured the public that the deal guarantees Iran will "never possess a nuclear weapon" and that its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium will be destroyed and removed.[4]

Draft texts circulated by mediating countries, including Qatar and Pakistan, suggest a different sequence. According to diplomatic sources, the immediate memorandum defers the complex nuclear negotiations to the 60-day ceasefire window. Iranian officials have reportedly demanded that any permanent settlement recognize their sovereign right to civilian uranium enrichment, a red line for previous U.S. administrations.[2][3][6]

The scope of the ceasefire has also been a major point of contention, particularly regarding the parallel conflict in Lebanon. Tehran has insisted that any halt in hostilities must apply to all fronts, demanding an end to Israeli military operations against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia.[1]

The draft agreement reportedly includes a cessation of fighting in Lebanon during the 60-day truce. This inclusion underscores the interconnected nature of the regional conflict, where Iranian proxies have frequently exchanged fire with Israeli forces since the broader war began.[1][2][5]

Israel, which launched the initial February strikes alongside the U.S., is notably absent from the current memorandum of understanding. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office issued a statement clarifying that Israel is not a party to the U.S.-Iran pact, though it expressed appreciation for Washington's commitment to eventually dismantling Tehran's enrichment infrastructure.[2][6]

Despite the U.S. diplomatic push, Israeli officials have maintained that they reserve the right to act independently against threats in Lebanon and Syria, raising questions about the durability of a region-wide ceasefire.[2][5]

The domestic political stakes for the U.S. administration are immense. The conflict has driven up domestic fuel prices and stretched longer than initial White House projections, prompting growing unease among American voters. Securing a tangible diplomatic victory—particularly one that lowers gas prices by reopening the Strait of Hormuz—has become a clear priority.[5][6]

Iranian leadership is similarly weighing the domestic calculus. While the country's economy has been battered by the blockade, hardliners in Tehran have framed their ability to withstand U.S. pressure and shut down the strait as a strategic victory. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson cautioned that while disputes have narrowed, the final text still requires approval from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.[1][2][6]

If the memorandum is signed, the immediate logistical challenge will be the safe demining of the Gulf waters. U.S. and allied naval forces will likely monitor the Iranian clearing operations closely, with the lifting of the port blockade calibrated to the pace of the cleanup.[3]

Ultimately, the 60-day truce is designed to serve as a bridge to a comprehensive treaty. But with fundamental disagreements remaining over nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile limits, and regional proxy funding, the upcoming negotiations promise to be as fraught as the war they seek to end.[2][4]