The US and Iran Are Closing In on a Peace Deal. Here Is Why Israel Is Sidelined.

The United States and Iran are reportedly on the verge of finalizing a landmark peace agreement to end the brief but economically devastating 2026 Iran War. Mediated by Pakistan, the emerging memorandum of understanding focuses heavily on reopening global shipping lanes and establishing a temporary ceasefire.[2][6]

Yet, as Washington and Tehran inch closer to a diplomatic breakthrough, a major regional power has been notably absent from the negotiating table: Israel. Despite fighting alongside the US during the initial phases of the conflict, the Israeli government has been largely sidelined from the core bilateral talks.[1][2]

The exclusion highlights a growing strategic divergence between the US and Israel. The Trump administration is prioritizing an immediate end to direct hostilities and the restoration of global commerce. In contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu views any agreement that leaves Iran's nuclear infrastructure intact as an existential threat.[3][4]

The mechanics of the proposed US-Iran deal rely on a phased approach to de-escalation. Phase one centers on immediately lifting the mutual blockades in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows.[2][6]

In exchange for restoring maritime security, the United States is expected to unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian assets held in foreign banks, with some leaked drafts suggesting the figure could be as high as $24 billion.[2][3]

Phase two of the agreement triggers a 60-day negotiation window to address the conflict's most intractable issue: Iran's nuclear program. This deferred approach—pausing the shooting now to talk about uranium enrichment later—is the primary source of anxiety for both Israeli officials and European allies.[2][4][5]

At the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, European leaders expressed deep concern over the structure of the deal. EU diplomats fear that a superficial interim agreement might entrench Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities while prematurely relieving economic pressure.[5]

European nations are pushing the US to ensure strict safeguards during the 60-day technical negotiation phase, alongside a guaranteed, secure reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially backed by a Franco-British naval mission.[5]

But the most immediate threat to the fragile US-Iran detente lies not in nuclear centrifuges, but in Lebanon. Israel has continued a fierce military offensive against Hezbollah—an Iran-backed militant group and political party in Lebanon—operating entirely outside the parameters of the US-Iran bilateral talks.[2][3]

Netanyahu has publicly insisted that Israel will maintain its freedom of military action across all arenas, including Lebanon, regardless of Washington's diplomatic progress. This stance has created severe friction with the White House.[3][4]

Recent Israeli airstrikes in Beirut reportedly delayed the signing of the US-Iran agreement by several hours, infuriating the Trump administration. The friction has led to unusually public clashes between President Trump and Netanyahu, with Washington demanding restraint to protect the peace deal and Jerusalem refusing to yield.[2]

For Iran, the diplomatic strategy appears to involve decoupling its direct, state-on-state confrontation with the United States from the ongoing proxy battles involving Israel. By securing a bilateral ceasefire with Washington, Tehran hopes to gain sanctions relief while maintaining its regional influence.[2]

The uncertainty now centers on whether a bilateral agreement between Washington and Tehran can survive the multilateral realities of the Middle East. If Israel continues to strike Iranian proxies, or if Iran retaliates against Israeli targets, the fragile ceasefire could easily shatter.[1][2]

Furthermore, the 60-day window for nuclear negotiations presents a massive diplomatic hurdle. While the US insists the deal will ultimately dismantle Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, Iranian officials have historically rejected such maximalist demands.[3][4]

If the nuclear talks collapse at the end of the 60-day period, the US has threatened to resume military action. This leaves the region in a state of suspended animation—a pause in the war, rather than a definitive end to it.[2]