UK Government Sets 40% Rail Freight Growth Target by 2040 for Great British Railways

On September 8, 2026, the UK government established a statutory target to expand rail freight volumes by 40% by 2040, a mandate that will be overseen by the newly formed Great British Railways (GBR).[1][2]

Currently, the UK rail network moves approximately £34 billion worth of goods annually. Hitting the 2040 threshold would add an estimated £15 billion to that total, effectively pulling millions of heavy goods vehicle journeys off the national road network.[1][2][3]

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander framed the mandate as an economic catalyst. "Great British Railways will have a clear mission to help grow our economy by moving more of the goods British businesses rely on," she stated, adding that the target provides the sector "the certainty it needs to invest."[1]

The legislative mechanism for this shift is embedded within the Railways Bill, which entered its committee stage in the House of Lords on September 8, 2026. The legislation grants GBR strategic oversight of network access and establishes two specific statutory duties to support freight expansion.[1]

To ensure passenger services do not crowd out industrial capacity, a dedicated member of the GBR board will hold specific responsibility for freight operations. This structural change addresses long-standing logistics industry concerns that freight paths are often treated as secondary to passenger timetables on a congested network.[1][3]

The Department for Transport anticipates uneven expansion across different commodity classes. Network Rail estimates that construction materials moved by rail could surge by 45%. A single freight train currently hauls enough aggregate and steel to construct roughly 30 homes.[1][2][3]

The steepest growth is projected in high-value consumer logistics. The government expects rail transport of cars, white goods, wine, and medicines to jump by 65%, while critical goods movements are forecast to increase by 7%.[2]

The modal shift from road to rail carries significant carbon implications. Achieving the 40% expansion by 2040 is projected to save up to one million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions annually, as rail freight produces fractionally the emissions of equivalent road haulage.[2]

The logistics sector has broadly welcomed the statutory baseline. Maggie Simpson OBE, Director General of the Rail Freight Group, noted that the 2040 mandate provides "a defined milestone" before the government's ultimate 2050 ambition of 75% growth.[3]

"Moving more products by train is a critical enabler of good growth, be that in housebuilding, green energy or reindustrialisation," Simpson said, emphasizing that the target enables focused action across the supply chain.[3]

As the Railways Bill progresses through Parliament, the immediate challenge for operators and infrastructure managers will be securing the necessary terminal capacity and electrified paths to accommodate the projected surge in tonnage.