U.S. and Iran Weigh 60-Day Ceasefire to Reopen Strait of Hormuz as Trump Claims Deal is Imminent

President Donald Trump has abruptly canceled a planned wave of military strikes against Iran, announcing instead that a "great settlement" has been reached to end the three-month-old war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The sudden diplomatic pivot, announced Thursday from the Oval Office, could see a memorandum of understanding signed in Europe as early as this weekend. If finalized, the agreement would halt a brutal conflict that has killed thousands, destabilized the Middle East, and severely disrupted global energy markets. Trump claimed that the "final points and concepts" of the deal had been approved by all involved parties, including Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, marking a potential end to one of the most dangerous geopolitical crises of his presidency.[1][2]

The core of the proposed agreement centers on a 60-day ceasefire extension. During this critical window, the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply—would be demined and reopened to international shipping without tolls. In exchange, the United States and Iran would launch formal, high-stakes negotiations addressing Tehran's nuclear program, the lifting of international sanctions, and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in Iranian assets held abroad. The memorandum of understanding is designed as a stepping stone, providing a cooling-off period while diplomats attempt to hammer out a permanent treaty that addresses both nations' core security concerns.[1][3]

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump framed the emerging deal as a definitive victory that would permanently prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. "We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran," Trump declared, adding that the documents are in "pretty final shape." He indicated that he would not attend the signing ceremony himself, instead delegating the task to Vice President JD Vance and top negotiators like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Trump emphasized that the Iranians "want it every bit as much as everybody else wants it," projecting confidence that the months of military and economic pressure had finally forced Tehran to capitulate at the negotiating table.[2][4]

However, officials in Tehran quickly poured cold water on the narrative that an agreement was already secured and ready for signature. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed that while significant progress had been made on the draft text with the help of Qatari mediators, Iran had "not reached a final conclusion" and was still reviewing the terms through its internal decision-making bodies. Baghaei emphasized that the Islamic Republic would not compromise on its established "red lines," particularly regarding the immediate lifting of crippling economic sanctions before any irreversible nuclear concessions are made. Iranian state media echoed this caution, warning the public to dismiss any announcements from Washington until Tehran officially confirms an understanding.[3][5]

The diplomatic whiplash follows a perilous 48-hour period of military escalation that threatened to engulf the broader Middle East. Earlier in the week, the U.S. military launched a wave of Tomahawk cruise missiles and fighter jet strikes against targets in southern Iran, responding to the downing of an American Apache helicopter over the Gulf. Iran retaliated by firing drones and ballistic missiles at U.S. military installations across Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, pushing the region to the brink of an uncontrolled, multi-front war. Trump had publicly vowed to hit Iran "very hard" and threatened to seize Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, before abruptly reversing course and calling off the bombers just hours before they were scheduled to strike.[2][6][7]

Despite the sudden optimism for a diplomatic truce, the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains fully active. Trump explicitly stated that the blockade will stay in "full force and effect" until the transaction is officially finalized and signed. The ongoing maritime standoff has effectively paralyzed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing global oil prices to spike and exacerbating inflationary pressures across Western economies. The U.S. military reported that it had intercepted multiple Iranian one-way attack drones attempting to strike commercial ships transiting the strait early Friday morning, underscoring the extreme volatility that persists in the waterway even as peace talks advance.[2][3][6]

Qatari mediators have spent weeks shuttling between Washington and Tehran in a desperate bid to bridge the remaining gaps. According to diplomats briefed on the talks, recent meetings in Tehran successfully narrowed differences on the sequencing of sanctions relief and the initial steps required to secure the waterway. Yet, sources caution that the deal remains highly fragile, with a significant probability of collapse if domestic hardliners in either country reject the compromises. The proposed memorandum discusses mechanisms for further nuclear talks and the release of frozen assets, but it reportedly lacks concrete, binding agreements on exactly how and when those financial transfers will take place, leaving ample room for future disputes.[1][3]

Regional allies are watching the rapid developments with a mix of economic relief and deep strategic skepticism. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who reportedly spoke with Trump shortly before the announcement, issued a statement clarifying that Israel is not a party to the memorandum. Netanyahu's office stressed that any final treaty must include the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear enrichment infrastructure, strict limitations on its ballistic missile production, and a definitive cessation of its financial support for proxy militias across the Middle East. While Netanyahu expressed appreciation for Trump's commitment to these goals, Israeli officials were reportedly caught off guard by the sudden announcement of an imminent deal.[2][3][6]

The immediate market reaction to the potential breakthrough was swift and dramatic, reflecting the immense economic stakes of the conflict. U.S. stock indices surged by hundreds of points, and global crude oil benchmarks dropped sharply on the prospect of restored supply lines through the Persian Gulf. If the memorandum of understanding is signed in the coming days, it will shift the immediate crisis from a kinetic military confrontation back to the negotiating table, offering a fragile off-ramp from a devastating regional war. But until the ink is dry, the situation remains highly volatile. The U.S. military remains on high alert in the region, and the world waits to see if the draft agreement can survive the intense political scrutiny in both Washington and Tehran over the crucial weekend ahead.[4][5]