US and Iran Near Historic Peace Deal to End 100-Day War and Reopen Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Iran are on the precipice of signing a landmark agreement to halt a devastating 100-day war that has crippled global energy markets and reshaped the Middle East. After weeks of halting negotiations, mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have finalized the text of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) designed to extend the current ceasefire and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz.[4][6]

U.S. President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that the agreement is scheduled to be signed electronically on Sunday. In a social media post, Trump claimed the deal would permanently prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz would be "open to all" immediately after the virtual ink dries.[1][7]

However, Iranian officials quickly poured cold water on the Sunday timeline. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that while an agreement in the coming days cannot be ruled out, a Sunday signing is premature. State-aligned media in Tehran emphasized that the Islamic Republic has not yet made a final decision, reflecting fierce internal debate among Iranian hardliners who fear giving up leverage too quickly.[2][3][8]

The conflicting timelines highlight the intense political pressure on both sides to frame the war's outcome as a victory. The conflict erupted on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli airstrikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with massive missile barrages and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas supply.[5][9]

The proposed MoU is not a final peace treaty, but rather a framework to de-escalate the immediate crisis. If signed, it would extend the fragile ceasefire—which has been in place since early April—by an additional 60 days. During this window, the two sides would transition to technical-level talks in Geneva to hammer out the permanent details.[4][6]

The core trade-off in the initial memorandum involves maritime access. The United States would agree to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a key demand from Tehran. In exchange, Iran would lift its toll system and military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing international shipping to resume normal operations.[1][2][7][8]

The economic stakes of reopening the strait are staggering. The 100-day closure sent global energy prices skyrocketing, forcing the World Bank to release up to $60 billion in emergency funds for developing nations hit hardest by the resulting inflation. Optimism over the impending deal provided immediate relief to markets on Friday, with the U.S. crude oil benchmark (WTI) dropping below $85 per barrel.[1]

The most contentious issue remains Iran's nuclear program. U.S. officials have briefed reporters that the MoU "leads to" the dismantling of Iran's enrichment capabilities and the removal of its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Trump has publicly touted the agreement as an ironclad guarantee against an Iranian nuclear weapon.[1][6][7]

Iranian negotiators, however, have pushed back against this framing. They insist that the MoU contains only broad references to the nuclear issue, leaving the actual parameters of enrichment and international inspections to be negotiated during the 60-day ceasefire window. Tehran maintains that its nuclear efforts are for peaceful purposes, though international monitors have been unable to verify the stockpile since the war began.[3][5]

The role of regional proxies also remains a delicate sticking point. Drafts of the agreement stipulate that hostilities must cease on all fronts, implicitly requiring Iran to rein in allied militant groups in Lebanon and Yemen. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly demanded strict enforcement of this clause, though Iran has historically resisted formal negotiations over its proxy network.[5][7]

The diplomatic heavy lifting has been managed by Pakistan and Qatar, who have shuttled between Washington and Tehran to bridge the gap. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed confidence that the framework is complete, noting that the virtual signing ceremony will be a simple video call connecting the two capitals without requiring physical travel.[4][6]

As the world watches to see if the electronic signing materializes, the underlying reality remains precarious. Even if the MoU is executed, the subsequent 60 days of technical negotiations will test whether the U.S. and Iran can translate a temporary truce into a lasting regional settlement, or if the Middle East will slide back into open warfare.[3][5]