Tigrayan Forces Launch Major Offensive, Shattering 2022 Peace Deal and Reigniting Ethiopian Civil War

The 2022 peace agreement that ended one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century has collapsed, as Tigrayan forces seized federal airports and launched a multi-front offensive aimed at overthrowing the Ethiopian government. Fighters loyal to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) took control of airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire on Wednesday, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend all flights to the northern region. The coordinated advance marks a definitive end to the Pretoria Agreement, shattering two years of fragile stability and reigniting a civil war that previously killed an estimated 600,000 people.[1][2][4]

The offensive extends beyond Tigray's borders, with TPLF forces pushing into the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara. Heavy artillery attacks were reported near the Tigray-Afar border as rebel units attempted to capture strategic towns, while fighting in Amhara forced the suspension of flights to the historic city of Lalibela. The Ethiopian military stated on Thursday that it had killed or captured dozens of TPLF fighters and seized large quantities of weapons in ongoing operations to repel the advance.[1][2]

The military escalation follows a major political realignment among Ethiopia's armed opposition. On Sunday, the TPLF announced it had joined forces with six other armed and political groups to form the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival. The coalition's stated objective is the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal government and the establishment of a transitional administration in Addis Ababa. This alliance effectively merges the Tigrayan rebellion with ongoing insurgencies in other regions, broadening the geographic scope of the conflict.[2][4]

Both sides have traded blame for the resumption of hostilities. The TPLF issued a statement declaring it had entered a "defensive war" to counter what it described as federal aggression, citing recent drone strikes and artillery bombardments targeting its positions. Conversely, Getachew Reda, a former TPLF official who now serves as an adviser to Prime Minister Abiy, accused the Tigrayan leadership of launching an unprovoked "all-out offensive" and taking "irresponsibility to new heights."[2][4]

The immediate civilian impact has been severe. Telecommunications networks across Tigray have been disrupted, cutting off millions of residents from the outside world. In cities close to the Eritrean border, residents reported panic-buying as market shelves emptied, driven by fears that the federal government will reimpose the devastating siege conditions that characterized the 2020-2022 war. During that period, the blockade of food, cash, and essential medicines pushed hundreds of thousands of people into famine-like conditions.[2][3]

The international community has responded with mounting alarm. The African Union and the European Union have both called for an immediate de-escalation and a return to the framework of the Pretoria Agreement. However, with the TPLF now formally allied with other regional militias and actively contesting federal control across multiple fronts, the institutional logic of the 2022 settlement appears to have been entirely dismantled.[2]

The next phase of the conflict hinges on whether the federal military can contain the multi-front advance before the rebel coalition consolidates its territorial gains. If the TPLF and its allies successfully secure supply lines through Afar and Amhara, the fighting could rapidly approach the scale and intensity of the previous war.[1][2]

The Ethiopian government has not yet indicated whether it will formally declare a state of emergency, a measure it deployed swiftly during the initial outbreak of hostilities in November 2020. For now, federal forces are mobilizing reinforcements to the northern fronts, setting the stage for a protracted and highly destructive military campaign.[1]