Samsung Forecast to Top 100 Trillion Won in Quarterly Operating Profit, Driven by AI Memory

On one side of the ledger, Samsung Electronics is projecting a historic milestone, with internal forecasts suggesting its semiconductor division could generate up to 370 trillion won in operating profit for 2026, pushing the company toward an unprecedented 100 trillion won in quarterly operating profit on the back of surging artificial intelligence memory demand. On the other side, financial analysts are actively slashing those exact expectations, arguing that a rapidly strengthening Korean won and weakening demand elasticity have already wiped 21 trillion won from the combined profit outlook of South Korea's top chipmakers in just two months.[1][3][4]

The mechanism driving the bullish internal forecast is the structural shift in the semiconductor market toward high-bandwidth memory and DDR5 server modules. During recent negotiations between Samsung management and its labor union, executives cited the 370 trillion won figure—a 40 trillion won upward revision from their June briefing. The semiconductor division accounts for 97 percent of the company's operating profit, making the pricing power of these advanced chips the absolute determinant of Samsung's financial trajectory.[3]

This optimism is anchored by KB Securities, which projects that Samsung will rank first in global operating profit among all listed companies next year. The brokerage anticipates that the profit center of the artificial intelligence industry is shifting from graphics processing units to memory semiconductors, creating a prolonged bull market where Samsung and its domestic rival SK Hynix could see combined operating profits approach 1,000 trillion won by 2027.[4]

However, the currency markets are actively undermining those projections. Samsung receives the overwhelming majority of its sales proceeds in U.S. dollars. The won-dollar exchange rate has plummeted from a peak of 1,555.8 won in early July to 1,345.9 won by mid-September—a 10.4 percent decline. That currency shift translates directly into lost revenue when dollars are converted back to won, acting as an immediate drag on earnings.[1][2]

According to Yonhap Infomax data, the combined 2026 operating profit consensus for Samsung and SK Hynix stood at 661 trillion won in July but has since fallen to 640 trillion won. Third-quarter estimates have similarly slipped, dropping from a combined 199 trillion won to 188 trillion won as brokerages recalibrate their models to account for the stronger domestic currency.[1][2]

Beyond the exchange rate, some brokerages see fundamental cracks in the hardware narrative. BNK Investment & Securities recently cut its third- and fourth-quarter operating profit estimates for Samsung by 5 percent and 2 percent, respectively, downgrading the stock to a "hold" and lowering its target price to 270,000 won.[5]

BNK analysts argue that memory costs have approached half of the bill of materials for personal computers and smartphones, forcing manufacturers to reduce memory capacity. With demand elasticity weakening and capacity expansion accelerating across the industry, they contend that memory prices are unlikely to rise further, capping the upside for semiconductor stocks.[5]

The practical stakes for the market are significant. If the memory supercycle holds and the 370 trillion won forecast materializes, Samsung's projected earnings could trigger a massive revaluation of its stock, supported by aggressive shareholder returns. If the currency headwinds and demand ceilings prove correct, the recent semiconductor rally may have already peaked, leaving investors exposed to a cyclical downturn.[3][4][5]