US and Iran Near 60-Day Ceasefire Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

US President Donald Trump announced that Washington and Tehran are on the verge of signing a memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, abruptly canceling planned US military strikes against Iran.[4][5]

The diplomatic breakthrough follows a highly volatile 48 hours. Earlier in the week, the US military struck Iranian oil tankers and water facilities, and Trump threatened to seize Kharg Island—Iran's primary oil export terminal—before pivoting to the negotiating table.[3][4]

Under the proposed framework, the two nations would observe a 60-day ceasefire across all regional fronts. This window is designed to pause hostilities and set the stage for comprehensive negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program.[5][7]

A central pillar of the agreement is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal reportedly establishes a 30-day timeline to demine the vital shipping lane and lift the US naval blockade, allowing a return to pre-war maritime transit volumes.[3][7]

In exchange for compliance, Iran would receive phased sanctions relief tied to its oil exports. Reports indicate the US would also unfreeze billions in Iranian assets—estimated between $12 billion and $24 billion—though the exact timing of the release remains heavily disputed.[5][7]

Despite the optimism, the two sides are already clashing over the specifics. Trump accused Iranian state media of leaking false terms that "bear no relation to the truth," insisting that the deal is strictly performance-based and that no assets will be released until Tehran fulfills its obligations.[2][5]

Iranian officials have offered a more cautious assessment. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that an agreement has "never been closer," but the foreign ministry clarified that Tehran has not yet reached a final conclusion on the draft.[1][3]

Global markets reacted immediately to the prospect of de-escalation. Oil prices sank more than 3% as traders priced in the return of Iranian crude to the formal market and the easing of supply bottlenecks in the Persian Gulf.[6][7]

Wall Street followed suit, with US stock futures rallying. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted early gains as investors cheered the reduced geopolitical risk premium and the avoidance of a broader Middle Eastern war.[6]

The agreement's impact extends beyond the Persian Gulf. The ceasefire reportedly includes provisions to halt fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, with Trump claiming he personally intervened with both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah leadership to stop the shooting.[5][8]

Regional allies are watching the developments closely. Netanyahu reiterated that he and Trump are in "complete agreement" that Iran will not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, a core demand that will dominate the upcoming 60-day negotiation window.[5]

The memorandum could be signed as early as this weekend in Europe. However, diplomats briefed on the talks warn there is still a "50% chance" of collapse, citing a long history of false starts, potential spoilers, and deep-seated mistrust between Washington and Tehran.[3]