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Advanced PackagingExplainerAug 12, 2026, 10:27 PM· 4 min read

TSMC Achieves 98% Yield on Advanced CoWoS Packaging, Shifting the AI Chip Bottleneck

The foundry's 5.5x reticle-size packaging process has cleared a critical manufacturing hurdle, though supply constraints are now moving to memory and substrates.

By Ishani Patel

Foundry Engineers 40%Hardware Analysts 35%Supply Chain Trackers 25%
Foundry Engineers
Focusing on the physical manufacturing triumph of overcoming defect density at massive package sizes.
Hardware Analysts
Evaluating how the high yield translates to actual accelerator shipments and capacity expansion.
Supply Chain Trackers
Warning that the overall supply constraint has merely shifted to other components.

Common questions

Does this mean the AI chip shortage is over?

Not entirely. While the packaging process itself is highly efficient, the overall supply is now constrained by the availability of ABF substrates and High Bandwidth Memory.

What does '5.5x reticle size' mean?

It means the final packaged chip is 5.5 times larger than the maximum area a standard lithography machine can print in one pass, requiring complex stitching of multiple components.

Why can't companies just make one giant chip?

Manufacturing a single massive silicon die results in terrible yields, as a single microscopic defect ruins the whole chip. Stitching smaller, perfect chips together is more efficient.

The short answer

  • TSMC has achieved 98 to 99 percent manufacturing yields on its massive 5.5x reticle-size CoWoS packaging.
  • The milestone was announced by TSMC Vice President Jun He at the OCP APAC Summit.
  • CoWoS packaging has been the primary bottleneck preventing faster shipments of AI accelerators.
  • While packaging yields are high, the supply chain constraint is now shifting to ABF substrates and memory chips.
  • TSMC plans to scale its packaging technology to an unprecedented 14x reticle size by 2029.

At the OCP APAC Summit in Taiwan on August 11, Jun He—the TSMC vice president affectionately known in the semiconductor industry as "Mr. CoWoS"—delivered a single statistic that redefines the global AI hardware supply chain: 98 percent.[1][6]

That number represents the manufacturing yield TSMC is currently achieving on its massive 5.5x reticle-size CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) packaging. Across multiple high-volume AI products, the process is consistently clearing the 98 percent threshold, with some specific designs reaching as high as 99 percent.[1][3]

To understand why a packaging yield is industry-shaking news, one must look at how modern AI accelerators are built. The era of monolithic silicon—printing one giant chip—is dead. Instead, companies like Nvidia and AMD design "chiplets," separating the compute logic from the memory to maximize performance and reduce waste.[4][5]

CoWoS is the mechanism that stitches these disparate pieces back together. It is not simply placing a chip in a plastic shell; it is a microscopic construction project. In the CoWoS-L variant, TSMC embeds local silicon interconnects within a redistribution layer, creating a high-speed data highway between the central compute dies and the surrounding High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) stacks.[2][5]

CoWoS architecture stitches multiple compute and memory chips together on a single high-speed interposer.
CoWoS architecture stitches multiple compute and memory chips together on a single high-speed interposer.

The scale of this assembly is staggering. A standard "reticle limit" is the maximum area a lithography machine can expose in a single flash of light—roughly 858 square millimeters. A 5.5x reticle package is five and a half times that size, covering over 4,500 square millimeters of delicate, interconnected silicon.[2][3]

At that size, the physics of manufacturing become hostile. Common defects include microscopic air bubbles trapped in the underfill resin, or bump misalignment where the thousands of microscopic copper pillars connecting the chips fail to line up perfectly.[3]

Furthermore, combining different materials—silicon dies, organic substrates, and metal interconnects—introduces severe thermal warpage. As the massive package heats and cools during the manufacturing process, the materials expand at different rates, causing the entire assembly to bend.[2][4]

Furthermore, combining different materials—silicon dies, organic substrates, and metal interconnects—introduces severe thermal warpage.

Achieving a 98 percent yield means that out of every 100 of these massive, fragile assemblies attempted, 98 survive the gauntlet without a fatal defect. It is a testament to TSMC's mastery of the physical variables, proving that extreme advanced packaging is now a stable, mature manufacturing process rather than an experimental art.[1][3]

For the past two years, CoWoS has been the absolute binding constraint on the AI revolution. Global demand for CoWoS is projected to double from roughly 1.3 million wafers in 2026 to 2.6 million in 2027, gating shipments for every major AI hardware developer.[4]

TSMC has been aggressively expanding its physical footprint to meet this demand. The foundry has nearly doubled its CoWoS capacity annually for three consecutive years, aiming to reach between 120,000 and 140,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026.[4][6]

TSMC has aggressively expanded its CoWoS capacity, aiming for up to 140,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026.
TSMC has aggressively expanded its CoWoS capacity, aiming for up to 140,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026.

However, high yield in the CoWoS process does not instantly translate to an infinite supply of AI accelerators. As TSMC clears the packaging bottleneck, the constraints are shifting outward to the materials that feed into the process.[2]

The first new bottleneck is the ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrate. This specialized organic board sits beneath the silicon interposer, translating the microscopic wiring of the chip to the larger scale of the server motherboard. As packages grow to 5.5x reticle size and beyond, manufacturing perfectly flat, defect-free ABF substrates becomes increasingly difficult, and supply is tightening.[2]

The second constraint is the memory itself. CoWoS assembly cannot begin without the required High Bandwidth Memory stacks on hand. With memory manufacturers projecting tight supply-demand conditions for HBM through 2027, the packaging lines can only run as fast as the memory arrives.[2][4]

Despite these shifting constraints, TSMC is already mapping the next leap in scale. The foundry's roadmap projects that by 2028, it will produce 14x reticle-size interposers capable of carrying 20 3D-stacked compute chiplets and 20 HBM modules.[1][5]

TSMC plans to scale its packaging technology to an unprecedented 14x reticle size by 2029.
TSMC plans to scale its packaging technology to an unprecedented 14x reticle size by 2029.

By 2029, the company plans to push beyond 14x, alongside advancements in SoIC (System on Integrated Chips) true 3D stacking, shrinking the hybrid bonding pitch down to 4.5 microns.[1][6]

The 98 percent yield milestone at the 5.5x scale proves that this aggressive roadmap is physically viable. Advanced packaging is no longer just a way to connect chips; it has become the primary engine driving the next decade of computing power.[5]

Why it matters

Advanced packaging has been the single tightest choke point in the global AI hardware supply chain. TSMC mastering this complex assembly process means faster delivery of next-generation AI accelerators, though new material shortages will still gate total output.

Competing readings

Foundry Engineers

Focusing on the physical manufacturing triumph of overcoming defect density at massive package sizes.

For process engineers, the 98 percent yield at a 5.5x reticle size is a victory over physics. Combining disparate materials—silicon dies, organic substrates, and metal interconnects—introduces severe thermal warpage. As the massive package heats and cools during the manufacturing process, the materials expand at different rates, causing the entire assembly to bend. Overcoming this, alongside eliminating microscopic air bubbles in the underfill and perfectly aligning thousands of copper bumps, proves that extreme advanced packaging is now a highly stable manufacturing process rather than an experimental art.

Hardware Analysts

Evaluating how the high yield translates to actual accelerator shipments and capacity expansion.

Market analysts view the yield milestone as the key to unlocking the AI hardware backlog. For the past two years, CoWoS capacity has been the absolute binding constraint on the AI revolution, gating shipments for major players like Nvidia and AMD. With TSMC nearly doubling its CoWoS capacity annually and aiming for up to 140,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026, a 98 percent yield ensures that this expanded physical footprint translates directly into usable, shippable products rather than wasted silicon.

Supply Chain Trackers

Warning that the overall supply constraint has merely shifted to other components.

Supply chain experts caution that high yield in the CoWoS process does not instantly equal an infinite supply of AI accelerators. As TSMC clears the packaging bottleneck, the constraints are shifting outward. The process requires massive, perfectly flat ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrates, which are becoming harder to source. Furthermore, assembly cannot begin without High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) stacks on hand. With memory manufacturers projecting tight supply through 2027, the packaging lines can only run as fast as the surrounding materials arrive.

The sequence

  1. 2022–2024

    The generative AI boom triggers a massive shortage of CoWoS packaging capacity, gating global GPU shipments.

  2. 2024

    TSMC enters mass production of 3.5x reticle CoWoS-L packaging.

  3. August 2026

    TSMC confirms 98 percent yield on 5.5x reticle CoWoS, signaling maturity in the current generation.

  4. 2028 (Projected)

    TSMC plans to introduce 14x reticle-size packaging capable of holding 20 HBM stacks.

  5. 2029 (Projected)

    Packaging is expected to scale beyond 14x reticle size with sub-5-micron hybrid bonding.

Jargon, explained

CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate)
TSMC's advanced packaging technology that stitches multiple silicon dies and memory stacks together on a single base layer.
Reticle Limit
The maximum physical area that a lithography machine can print onto a wafer in a single exposure.
HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)
Vertically stacked memory chips that sit immediately adjacent to the compute processor to feed it data at massive speeds.
ABF Substrate
The specialized organic resin board that sits beneath the silicon interposer, connecting the microscopic chip wiring to the larger motherboard.
Yield
The percentage of manufactured units that pass quality inspection and function correctly without fatal defects.

What’s still unclear

  • Exactly which stage of the multi-step CoWoS process the 98 percent yield figure applies to.
  • How quickly ABF substrate manufacturers can scale capacity to meet the shifting bottleneck.
  • Whether thermal warpage can be reliably controlled when packaging scales to the massive 14x reticle size in 2029.

Sources

Source coverage

6 outlets

3 viewpoints surfaced

Foundry Engineers 40%Hardware Analysts 35%Supply Chain Trackers 25%
  1. [1]TrendForceHardware Analysts

    TSMC 5.5-reticle-size CoWoS is now in volume production

    Read on TrendForce
  2. [2]XenoSpectrumSupply Chain Trackers

    TSMC's 5.5x CoWoS Hits 98%+ Yield, Shifting Constraints to Memory and ABF

    Read on XenoSpectrum
  3. [3]WCCFTechFoundry Engineers

    TSMC Exec Makes Big Announcement & Confirms 98% Yield For CoWoS Packaged AI Chips

    Read on WCCFTech
  4. [4]Silicon AnalystsHardware Analysts

    CoWoS: The Binding Constraint

    Read on Silicon Analysts
  5. [5]Tom's HardwareFoundry Engineers

    TSMC is manufacturing the world's largest 5.5-reticle size CoWoS

    Read on Tom's Hardware
  6. [6]DigiTimesHardware Analysts

    TSMC nears AI packaging demand after years of doubling capacity

    Read on DigiTimes

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