The Grand Prix Bubble: Karhunen, Matsuike, and Sumiyoshi Battle for the Top 24 in the ISU Women's World Standings

In elite figure skating, the summer off-season is rarely a true break. While fans await the debut of new programs and choreography, athletes and their federations are engaged in a high-stakes mathematical chess match. The ultimate prize is a spot on the ISU Grand Prix circuit, the premier series of international invitational events that defines the first half of the competitive calendar.[4]

The rules governing Grand Prix assignments are strict and heavily reliant on the International Skating Union (ISU) World Standings. Skaters who finish in the top 12 at the World Championships automatically receive two assignments. However, for the rest of the elite field, the magic number is 24. Athletes ranked in the top 24 of either the ISU World Standings or the Season's Best score list earn at least one guaranteed assignment on the circuit.

As the 2026/2027 season points reset takes effect, a fascinating "bubble" has formed just outside the women's top 24. With points from the 2023/2024 season dropping off the rolling calculation, the standings have shifted dramatically, leaving a cluster of talented skaters fighting for the next available slots.[2]

Analysts tracking the standings have identified the "Next 5" women currently sitting on the bubble: Finland's Iida Karhunen, Japan's Rino Matsuike and Rion Sumiyoshi, Italy's Sarina Joos, and France's Lea Serna. If any skaters currently inside the top 24 retire, split, or withdraw due to injury, these five women are first in line for reinforcements.[1][3]

For the Japanese skaters, Matsuike and Sumiyoshi, the stakes are particularly high. Japan dominates the women's field globally, meaning internal domestic competition is just as fierce as the international circuit. Securing a Grand Prix spot is often a prerequisite for building the momentum needed to make the highly competitive Japanese national team later in the year.[1]

Meanwhile, the presence of Karhunen and Joos on the bubble highlights the growing depth of European women's skating. Both athletes have shown significant promise in recent seasons, and breaking into the Grand Prix circuit would provide them with vital international exposure and the opportunity to compete against the world's best on a regular basis.[1][4]

The mechanics of the ISU World Standings, implemented in their current form in 2010, are designed to reward consistency over a three-year period. Points earned in the current and immediately preceding season count for 100%, while points from two seasons prior are reduced to 70%. This rolling system means that a skater's ranking is constantly in flux, rewarding recent success while punishing extended absences.[2]

To even be considered for a Grand Prix spot, skaters must first meet a strict minimum technical threshold. For the women's discipline in the 2026/2027 season, athletes must have achieved a minimum total score of 133.78 in an ISU-recognized event during the current or previous season. All the skaters on the current bubble have easily cleared this hurdle, reducing their qualification battle to pure ranking points.

Because the standings can be actively improved throughout the season, top skaters on the bubble often use late-summer Challenger Series events strategically. By entering these lower-tier international competitions in August and September, athletes like Karhunen and Serna can harvest valuable ranking points to boost their standing before the final Grand Prix roster spots are locked in.[1][4]

The strategic use of Challenger events adds an exciting layer of tension to the late summer calendar. Fans and federations alike will be watching these early competitions closely, not just for the debut of new jumps and spins, but for the crucial points that could vault a bubble skater into the top 24 and alter the trajectory of their entire season.[4]

Another variable in the Grand Prix assignment process is the "host pick." The six countries hosting Grand Prix events—such as Skate Canada, Skate America, and the NHK Trophy—are allowed to invite a certain number of their own skaters, regardless of their World Standing. This can sometimes result in a skater outside the top 24 securing an assignment, while a bubble skater from a non-hosting nation is left waiting on the alternate list.[4]

Ultimately, the race for the top 24 is a testament to the sheer depth of talent in modern women's figure skating. As the sport continues to push technical and artistic boundaries, the margin between a guaranteed Grand Prix spot and the alternate list has never been thinner. For Karhunen, Matsuike, Sumiyoshi, Joos, and Serna, the road to the Milan Olympics begins with the fight for a single ranking point.[4]