How Agriculture and Reform Could Rebuild Sudan's Economy by 2043

The United Nations Development Programme and the Institute for Security Studies have published a comprehensive economic model projecting the long-term developmental trajectory of Sudan up to the year 2043. Utilizing the International Futures modeling platform, the joint report, titled "Beyond the Conflict," provides the most detailed quantitative assessment to date of both the locked-in costs of the ongoing war and the potential dividends of a structured recovery. By running multiple scenarios based on the duration of the fighting and the depth of subsequent institutional reforms, the researchers have created a data-driven blueprint that separates the immediate humanitarian crisis from the structural economic challenges the nation will face over the next two decades.[1][2]

The analysis arrives at a critical juncture for international policymakers. While the immediate focus of the global community has understandably centered on the acute displacement and food insecurity caused by the fighting, the joint modeling provides a necessary framework for long-term reconstruction. The report emphasizes that ending the violence is merely the prerequisite for recovery, not the recovery itself. Without a clear, mathematically grounded roadmap for rebuilding state capacity and formalizing the economy, the nation risks decades of stagnation even after a peace agreement is signed.[1][3]

The baseline data established by the report quantifies the sheer scale of the initial economic contraction. In 2023 alone, the first year of the conflict, the fighting erased an estimated $6.4 billion from the national gross domestic product. This sudden collapse of formal commerce, combined with the destruction of critical infrastructure and the disruption of agricultural cycles, triggered a cascading failure across multiple sectors of the economy. The immediate shock effectively wiped out three decades of slow but measurable developmental progress.[1]

The human cost of this initial economic collapse was immediate and severe. The contraction pushed nearly seven million additional people into extreme poverty within a single twelve-month period. Average incomes plummeted to levels not recorded since the early 1990s, while currency depreciation and hyperinflation rendered everyday survival increasingly difficult for the civilian population. The destruction of formal banking and logistics networks forced much of the remaining economic activity into an informal, unregulated war economy.

Building upon this baseline, the modeling projects three distinct futures for the nation. The most severe projection, termed the "Protracted Conflict" scenario, models the compounding economic and demographic fallout if the fighting continues unabated until 2030. This trajectory assumes that the current destruction of human capital, the ongoing displacement of civilians, and the continued paralysis of state institutions remain the status quo for the remainder of the decade, creating a deep structural deficit that will take generations to overcome.[1][2]

Under this worst-case trajectory, the long-term macroeconomic damage is staggering. The model projects that the gross domestic product would be $34.5 billion lower by 2043 than it would have been under a hypothetical no-conflict baseline. This massive shortfall represents not just lost revenue, but the permanent erosion of the country's long-term development potential. Per capita income would remain severely depressed, hovering below 2023 levels and cementing the nation's status at the very bottom of global economic rankings.[1]

The demographic consequences of the Protracted Conflict scenario are equally devastating. The model projects that extreme poverty would engulf more than 60 percent of the population by 2030. In absolute terms, this would add 34 million people to the ranks of the extremely poor—a demographic shift larger than the entire population of Ghana. Furthermore, the continued collapse of the healthcare and education systems would ensure that the nation's youthful population becomes a lost generation rather than an engine for future economic growth.[1]

Even if a peace agreement is reached in the near term without accompanying structural reforms—a trajectory the report labels the "Current Path" scenario—the projected recovery remains deeply anemic. The model suggests that without aggressive intervention, average economic growth would stagnate at just 1.2 percent through 2043. This rate is far below the 6.2 percent average estimated for other low-income countries on the continent, indicating that the structural damage inflicted by the war will continue to suppress growth long after the guns fall silent.[2]

However, the core utility of the joint report lies in its third projection: the "Sudan Rising" or "Sudan Renaissance" scenario. Rather than simply quantifying the damage, this model provides a concrete, data-driven roadmap for sustainable recovery. It quantifies the specific economic dividends that could be realized by combining a durable peace settlement with aggressive, targeted investments in key sectors, offering a mathematical proof that the country's economic trajectory is not permanently broken.[1]

The Renaissance scenario demonstrates that with the right policy interventions, the gross domestic product could reach $58.2 billion by 2043. This optimized path would sustain an annual economic growth rate of 5 percent, more than double the projections of the baseline recovery model. By focusing on structural reforms rather than mere stabilization, this trajectory provides a framework for how state institutions can actively rebuild the middle class and integrate the nation into the broader regional economy.[1][3]

Within this optimized model, agriculture emerges as the single most powerful engine for poverty reduction. The country possesses vast expanses of arable land and immense livestock wealth, resources that have historically been underutilized due to institutional weakness and lack of investment. The report identifies the modernization of the agricultural sector as the most efficient mechanism for generating broad-based employment and securing domestic food supply chains in the post-conflict era.

The modeling indicates that targeted investments in farming and rural infrastructure have the capacity to lift 4.7 million people out of extreme poverty. By transitioning from subsistence farming to more productive, formalized agricultural enterprises, the sector can serve as the foundation for a broader economic revival. This approach not only addresses immediate food insecurity but also positions the nation as a potential anchor for regional agricultural exports.[3]

Governance reform is identified as the second critical pillar of the Renaissance scenario. Rebuilding state capacity, ensuring transparent resource management, and restoring the delivery of basic services are modeled as independent drivers of economic growth. The data suggests that establishing a functional, accountable bureaucracy could independently lift another 4.8 million citizens out of extreme poverty by creating an environment conducive to formal business investment and international trade.

In total, the Sudan Rising scenario projects that 17.3 million people could be elevated above the extreme poverty line by 2043 if these comprehensive reforms are implemented. Furthermore, the compounding benefits of a formalized economy would allow for the reconstruction of the healthcare and education systems. The model projects that these improvements in human capital would increase average life expectancy by more than four years, fundamentally altering the demographic future of the nation.[1]

Regional analysts emphasize that realizing this optimistic scenario requires the complete dismantling of the informal war economy. The country's vast mineral wealth, particularly its gold reserves, currently fuels the conflict through unregulated smuggling networks. Reintegrating these resources into a formal, transparent fiscal system is viewed as the essential first step to funding the governance and agricultural reforms outlined in the United Nations models, ensuring that the nation's natural wealth serves its recovery rather than its destruction.[3]

Ultimately, the joint report serves as both a stark warning and a highly detailed blueprint. While the data clearly illustrates the $34.5 billion cost of continued inaction, it equally proves that a structured, agriculture-led renaissance remains mathematically achievable. By providing a clear target for post-conflict financing and institutional reform, the modeling offers a tangible path forward for a nation standing at a decisive historical crossroads.[1][2][3]