US Halts Strikes on Iran as Trump Claims Peace Deal is Imminent; Tehran Denies Final Agreement

On the 105th day of escalating military confrontation, President Donald Trump abruptly halted a series of planned US military strikes against Iran, declaring that a "great settlement" between Washington and Tehran is imminent. The sudden de-escalation marks a potential turning point in a conflict that has severely disrupted global trade and energy markets.[1][2][5]

The specific trigger for the operational pause was a planned US strike on Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal. Military planners had reportedly finalized the strike packages before the White House called them off at the eleventh hour, citing significant breakthroughs in back-channel negotiations.[2]

Trump's announcement from Washington painted a picture of a finalized diplomatic victory. The president suggested that a comprehensive peace agreement could be signed as soon as this weekend, effectively ending the current phase of hostilities and reopening critical maritime routes.[1][5]

However, Tehran quickly poured cold water on the administration's timeline. Iran's foreign ministry issued a formal statement contradicting the US president, clarifying that while American proposals are currently under review by supreme leadership, no final conclusion has been reached.[1][7]

The diplomatic whiplash highlights the highly volatile nature of the indirect negotiations, which have been mediated primarily through Omani and Qatari officials. Both sides are attempting to project strength domestically while navigating the economic devastation wrought by the prolonged standoff.[5][6]

The stakes for the global economy are immense. The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime artery through which roughly a fifth of the world's daily oil consumption typically flows. The resulting supply shock has sent ripples through international markets.[4][6]

The economic fallout is already materializing in Western nations. Official figures released Friday showed the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April, a contraction directly attributed to the energy price shock caused by the Middle East conflict, reversing a previously strong quarter of growth.[4]

Brent crude prices have hovered near multi-year highs, creating a severe inflationary headwind for central banks globally. Market analysts note that even the rumor of a peace deal was enough to temporarily stabilize futures, though traders remain highly skeptical of the conflicting narratives.[4][6]

Within the US, the administration's shifting stance has drawn intense scrutiny. Some domestic critics and political analysts argue the White House is projecting optimism prematurely to calm jittery markets, while others suggest the threat to Kharg Island was a calculated bluff designed to force Tehran's hand at the negotiating table.[3]

Regional allies are watching the developments with deep apprehension. Officials in Israel and several Gulf states have privately expressed fears that a rushed US exit strategy might leave Iran's regional proxy network and nuclear infrastructure largely intact, trading long-term security for short-term economic relief.[8]

The coming 48 hours are viewed by defense officials as critical. If Tehran formally rejects the current draft of the agreement, the Pentagon has reportedly maintained its strike packages in the region, ready to execute the Kharg Island operation on short notice.[2][5]

For now, the Persian Gulf remains in a tense holding pattern. With military assets locked in position and diplomatic back-channels working overtime, the global economy hangs on the translation of draft texts between Washington and Tehran.[1][6]