Calculating the Social Cost of Carbon: How Models Value Emissions for Regulation

People often assume that climate policy is driven entirely by physical science—by the measurement of sea-level rise, the tracking of atmospheric concentrations, and the modeling of temperature thresholds. But the stringency of environmental regulation in the United States and much of the developed world actually hinges on an obscure, highly contested economic metric.[5]

That metric is the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC). It is the estimated monetary value of the net harm to society from emitting one additional metric ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in a given year.

The SCC acts as the ultimate yardstick for cost-benefit analysis in government rulemaking. If a proposed regulation costs industry $10 billion to implement, but prevents emissions that would cause $15 billion in climate damages according to the SCC, the regulation is deemed economically justified.[5]

Conversely, if the SCC is set low, the same regulation fails the cost-benefit test and cannot be legally implemented. This makes the SCC one of the most consequential figures in global environmental policy, dictating the pace and scale of the energy transition.[6]

Calculating this figure requires linking the physical sciences with global economics through what are known as Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).[2][3]

Researchers first simulate a baseline path of global economic growth and climate change. They then inject one additional ton of carbon dioxide into the model and measure the resulting difference in agricultural productivity, human health, property damage from flooding, and energy system costs over centuries.[3][4]

The difference between the baseline and the augmented scenario is the raw social cost. However, because carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, the vast majority of these damages will occur in the distant future.[7]

This introduces the single most consequential—and controversial—variable in the entire calculation: the discount rate.[5]

In economics, a discount rate reflects the time value of money, based on the premise that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow because it can be invested and grown. When applied to climate damages, the discount rate determines how much we value the economic harms suffered by future generations.[1]

A high discount rate assumes that future generations will be significantly wealthier and more technologically advanced, meaning they will easily absorb climate damages. A low discount rate assumes we owe it to future generations to weigh their suffering almost equally to our own.[6]

The mathematical impact of this philosophical choice is staggering. Under the Obama and early Biden administrations, using a 3 percent discount rate, the SCC was set at roughly $51 per ton.[5]

The Trump administration shifted the discount rate to 7 percent—the standard rate for capital investments—and restricted the calculation to only domestic, rather than global, damages. This dual adjustment collapsed the SCC to between $1 and $7 per ton.[5]

Most recently, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized a new report that lowered the discount rate to 2 percent, reflecting newer economic consensus on long-term interest rates. This pushed the central estimate of the SCC to $190 per ton.

Shifting the discount rate from 2 percent to 7 percent mathematically erases over 95 percent of future climate damages from current cost-benefit analyses. It demonstrates that the SCC is not a pure scientific measurement of physical climate impact, but rather a philosophical judgment about intergenerational equity.[6]

Critics of the SCC framework argue that it is too easily manipulated to generate any desired regulatory outcome. Estimating the future costs and benefits of climate change requires predicting technological advancement centuries into the future—a task that introduces massive uncertainty.[1][2]

Yet, climate economists argue that the official government estimates are actually too conservative. A 2024 synthesis published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) combined over 1,800 estimates from the literature.[1]

By adjusting for structural model variations and the persistence of climate damages on economic growth, the NBER researchers generated a synthetic SCC distribution with a mean of $284 per ton—substantially higher than even the EPA's latest update.[1]

As federal agencies increasingly embed the $190-per-ton figure into binding regulations, from methane emissions to heavy-duty truck standards, the SCC will continue to dictate the pace of the energy transition. The debate over its calculation is no longer an academic exercise; it is the central battleground of global climate policy.[8]