The Evidence Pack: Analyzing the Resumption of US-Iran Strikes and Competing Radar Claims

The fragile ceasefire that paused the 2026 conflict between the United States and Iran has officially collapsed, giving way to a renewed and intense exchange of military strikes. On Wednesday, the U.S. military initiated a second wave of coordinated attacks against Iranian coastal defenses, while Tehran simultaneously claimed to have destroyed advanced U.S. radar installations in neighboring Gulf states.[1][4]

The escalation marks a definitive end to the Pakistan-mediated memorandum of understanding, which had established a 60-day pause in hostilities. With the diplomatic off-ramp closed, both nations have reverted to kinetic operations aimed at controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint.[3][5]

According to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the second wave of American strikes commenced at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. The operation utilized precision munitions to target Iranian command centers, air defense sites, and coastal surveillance facilities.[2][7]

The primary geographic focus of the U.S. offensive included Greater Tunb Island and the port city of Bandar Abbas. CENTCOM reported that a 90-minute wave of strikes successfully degraded cruise missile storage and launch sites that Washington asserts were being used to threaten commercial shipping.[1][2]

In tandem with the airstrikes, the United States has formally reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports. The blockade, which had been temporarily lifted during the ceasefire, authorizes U.S. naval forces to intercept and redirect any unauthorized vessels attempting to transit Iranian waters.[4][7]

The enforcement of this blockade has already resulted in direct maritime confrontations. U.S. forces reported disabling an unladen oil tanker that ignored multiple warnings while attempting to sail toward Iran's Kharg Island, utilizing Hellfire missiles to strike the vessel's smokestack.[1][7]

In response to the U.S. offensive, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched what it termed the tenth phase of its retaliatory campaign, dubbed "Operation Lightning." Tehran claims this operation successfully targeted U.S. military infrastructure across the region.[1][3]

Iranian state media and military statements specifically assert that IRGC drones and missiles struck Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. The claimed targets included C-RAM early warning radar systems, Patriot air defense batteries, and critical fuel storage tanks utilized by U.S. personnel.[3]

Furthermore, Iran claims to have executed a separate drone operation targeting Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain. According to Iranian military statements, this secondary strike focused on U.S. communication nodes and Super Hawk radar installations.[3]

The evidentiary basis for these competing claims varies significantly in transparency. While CENTCOM has released declassified video footage and battle damage assessments confirming its strikes on Iranian infrastructure, independent verification regarding the extent of damage to U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain remains sparse.[2][3]

Defense analysts and unnamed U.S. officials suggest the American strikes serve a dual purpose. Beyond immediate retaliation, the systematic targeting of Iranian radar and air defenses is characterized as "shaping operations"—a military strategy designed to weaken the adversary's defensive posture ahead of potentially more complex and intensive operations.[5]

The geographic targets of the U.S. strikes are strategically vital. Islands such as Greater Tunb form a defensive arc for Iran, providing forward operating positions to monitor maritime traffic and deploy asymmetric naval forces, including one-way attack drones and fast attack craft.[4][6]

The resumption of hostilities has immediately impacted global energy markets. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, surged to a one-month high of $84.95 a barrel as traders priced in the heightened risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.[1]

The economic stakes of this waterway cannot be overstated. Prior to the outbreak of the war in February 2026, approximately one-fifth of all global oil and gas shipments transited through the Strait of Hormuz, making its unimpeded operation vital to global macroeconomic stability.[1][5]

The human toll of the renewed conflict is also mounting. Iranian health officials and state television reported that U.S. strikes on an army barracks in Sistan and Baluchestan province resulted in dozens of casualties among conscripts and career soldiers, though exact figures remain contested.[4][6]

Regional actors are increasingly caught in the crossfire. Gulf nations, including Kuwait and Bahrain, have been forced to activate their own air defense networks to intercept incoming projectiles, while the United Nations has warned that a return to full-scale war could severely disrupt the global flow of food and medicine.[4][7]

The collapse of the ceasefire highlights the deep strategic impasse between Washington and Tehran. Critics of the U.S. approach argue that while the military has achieved tactical victories by degrading Iran's conventional forces, it has not secured the strategic concessions necessary to ensure long-term freedom of navigation.[5]

As the conflict enters this new phase, the evidence points to a dangerous equilibrium. The United States possesses the conventional superiority to systematically dismantle Iranian coastal defenses, but Iran retains sufficient asymmetric capabilities—and the geographic advantage of the Strait—to impose severe economic costs on the global economy.[5][6]