Il Lombardia 2026 Preview: A Wide-Open Monument Awaits in the Absence of Tadej Pogačar

The moment that matters for the 120th edition of Il Lombardia isn't a specific climb or a treacherous descent—it is a glaring absence on the start line. For half a decade, the season's final Monument has operated as Tadej Pogačar's personal autumn procession. But when the peloton rolls out of Bergamo on October 10, 2026, the five-time defending champion will be watching from home. Pogačar's devastating crash on Stage 8 of the Vuelta a España left him with a fractured collarbone that, as FloBikes reported, "ultimately required season-ending surgery." That single medical update has blown the "Race of the Falling Leaves" completely wide open.[2]

Without the Slovenian juggernaut, the 252-kilometer trek to Como transforms from a race for second place into the most unpredictable Monument finale since 2020. As WatchCycling noted before the injury reshaped the landscape, "Pogacar's dominance has been so complete that the race narrative has shifted from who will win to whether anyone can stay close." Now, that narrative is shredded. A hungry pack of Grand Tour stars and one-day specialists arrive in Italy knowing that a career-defining victory is genuinely up for grabs.[1]

The route itself remains as unforgiving as ever, demanding peak late-season form. While organizers are holding back the exact sequence of the middle climbs until the official September 24 presentation, the brutal closing kilometers are set in stone. Riders will face the iconic Madonna del Ghisallo before hitting the decisive one-two punch of the Civiglio and the San Fermo della Battaglia. The Civiglio—a punishing 4.2-kilometer wall averaging 10% with leg-snapping pitches over 14%—is where the race traditionally explodes.[1]

"For more than a century, the Race of the Falling Leaves has stood as one of the most prestigious and captivating events on the international cycling calendar," organizers announced in a September 21 release. This year, the tactical dynamic on those historic slopes shifts entirely. Without UAE Team Emirates dictating a blistering tempo to set up a Pogačar solo flight, the peloton will likely see a chaotic, aggressive race of attrition.[3]

Into this vacuum steps Enric Mas, riding the absolute form of his life. The Movistar leader arrives fresh off securing his first Grand Tour victory at the 2026 Vuelta a España, ending a 12-year drought for Spain. Mas has the pure climbing pedigree to dismantle the field on the Civiglio, and without Pogačar's explosive kick to worry about, the Spaniard can afford to launch a long-range offensive.

But Mas faces a monumental challenge from Remco Evenepoel. The Soudal Quick-Step superstar has orchestrated a staggering 2026 campaign, capturing Liège-Bastogne-Liège in the spring and recently sealing a historic fourth consecutive World Championship time trial title. Evenepoel's ability to attack from distance and hold off a chasing pack makes him the most dangerous man on the start list. If he slips away on the Passo di Ganda or the descent of the Ghisallo, the race for the podium might be over before Como is even in sight.[2]

UAE Team Emirates, suddenly stripped of their talisman, won't simply roll over. The squad is expected to pivot their immense firepower behind 22-year-old sensation Isaac del Toro. The Mexican prodigy recently stormed to victory at the Grand Prix de Montréal, proving he can handle both the distance and the pressure of WorldTour one-day racing. Backed by a roster built to win Monuments, del Toro could easily play the role of spoiler.

The late-season timing adds a final layer of complexity. As ProCyclingUK points out, "Some riders are desperate for one final major result, others are protecting tired bodies, and a few arrive in exceptional late form." With the weather over the Italian lakes capable of shifting from warm autumn sun to freezing rain in a matter of hours, the descent into Como will test nerves as much as legs. For the first time in six years, the finish line at Il Lombardia is a blank canvas.