UN Global Risk Report Identifies Large-Scale War as Fastest-Rising Global Threat

Thirty-six percent of global stakeholders surveyed by the United Nations now expect a large-scale war to significantly impact humanity within the next twelve months. The finding marks a sharp departure from recent years, elevating military conflict from a theoretical long-term concern to an immediate operational baseline for governments and multinational corporations.[1][5]

The 2026 Global Risk Report, released on September 15, aggregates responses from 1,300 officials across government, civil society, the private sector, and academia in 155 countries. Respondents were asked to evaluate 28 distinct political, economic, environmental, societal, and technological threats based on their likelihood, potential severity, and the international community's readiness to manage them.[1][7]

In the inaugural 2024 survey, environmental threats, misinformation, and pandemics dominated the top concerns. Two years later, large-scale war has climbed 16 places in the rankings—the steepest rise recorded among all 28 assessed risks. The threat is now viewed as the most imminent danger facing the global system.[2][5][7]

The anxiety extends well beyond the immediate twelve-month horizon. According to the data, 76 percent of respondents project that a major conflict will materialize and affect a significant share of the global population within seven years.[2][6]

The report highlights a severe gap in institutional capacity to handle this specific threat. Participants ranked the multilateral system's preparedness to detect and mitigate large-scale war at 23rd out of 28 risks, indicating widespread skepticism that current diplomatic frameworks can absorb or defuse the escalating tensions.[6]

The United Nations frames this military threat as deeply interconnected with other systemic vulnerabilities. Global financial crises and supply chain collapses both moved up 12 places in the 2026 index, while cybersecurity breakdowns rose seven spots. Survey respondents identified the link between geopolitical tension and war as the strongest among the 705 risk connections mapped in the report.[5][7]

The geographic distribution of these fears is uniform across the globe. Large-scale war and geopolitical tension now rank among the top 10 threats in all seven regions covered by the survey, and sit in the top five across six of them. In 2024, these risks reached the top five in only one region.[6][7]

While climate change inaction remains the single highest-rated long-term risk overall, environmental risks as a broader category saw a slight decrease in perceived urgency. Conversely, concerns regarding artificial intelligence and frontier technologies surged, with AI-related risks entering the top 10 in Europe and North America.[2][7]

Secretary-General António Guterres noted in the report's foreword that political risks have moved to the center stage, describing the prospect of war as "far more important and far more immediate" than two years prior. He warned that the institutions expected to respond are simultaneously viewed as less capable of acting.[7]

The data indicates that political will and capital are likely to follow this shift in perception. As global attention pivots toward military readiness and geoeconomic confrontation, the findings place immediate pressure on international bodies to reinforce diplomatic guardrails before the projected conflicts materialize.[1][7]