Jihadist Violence in the Sahel on Track to Exceed 3,000 Incidents in 2026

Military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger seized power over the last four years on explicit promises to restore territorial security and eliminate armed insurgencies. However, new conflict data indicates that violence involving jihadist groups in the central Sahel is instead accelerating, with the region on track to record more than 3,000 violent incidents in 2026.[1][3]

Figures compiled by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project show that 2,145 violent events involving extremist groups were logged in the three countries between January 1 and early September 2026. If the current pace holds, the annual total will easily surpass the 2,845 incidents recorded in 2025, marking a historic high for the region.[1][3]

The scale of the escalation is stark when viewed over a decade. In 2016, ACLED recorded just 63 such incidents across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The subsequent surge has transformed the Sahel into the global focal point of militant Islamist violence, even as terrorism-related deaths decline in other parts of the world.[1][3]

The human cost of this concentration is severe. The 2026 Global Peace Index reported that the United Nations recorded more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents across the three central Sahelian states in 2025. The index noted that Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali now rank as the second, third, and fifth most terrorism-affected countries globally.[1][3]

The violence is primarily driven by two competing coalitions: the al-Qaida-affiliated Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), which operates as the Islamic State Sahel Province. Both groups have expanded their territorial reach and operational tempo this year.[1][2][3]

In Burkina Faso, JNIM has claimed responsibility for more than 130 attacks in 2026, increasingly striking closer to the capital, Ouagadougou. A dedicated JNIM offensive in February involved over 30 attacks in the country, resulting in the deaths of more than 120 soldiers, forest guards, and state-backed civilian volunteers.[1][3]

In neighboring Niger, the Tillabéri region remains the deadliest hotspot. ACLED recorded over 1,200 fatalities related to political violence there in 2025, the highest of any region in the central Sahel. While JNIM claimed at least 17 attacks in Niger this year, the Islamic State affiliate remains the dominant militant force in that specific border area.[1][3]

Despite their ideological ties to transnational networks, the militant groups operating in the Sahel are heavily focused on local territorial control and economic warfare. "In the Sahel, Islamic State and al-Qaida now command big areas but these are very localised groups," noted analysts cited in the recent reporting, emphasizing that JNIM has largely distanced itself from al-Qaida's historical objective of striking Western targets.[1]

The deteriorating security environment follows a major geopolitical realignment by the region's military leaders. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger expelled French counterterrorism forces and United Nations peacekeepers, withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States, and formed their own mutual defense pact, the Alliance of Sahel States.[2]

As the year enters its final quarter, the trajectory of the conflict remains pointed upward. With militant groups continuing to exploit porous borders and state absences in rural areas, the central Sahel faces a compounding crisis where military responses have yet to reverse the expansion of armed networks.[1][2][3]