Can Turkey Finally Break Their Winless Curse Against Italy in Nations League Clash?

Turkey has never beaten Italy in 13 historical attempts, and they will have to do it without their starting goalkeeper to break that streak on Monday. Vincenzo Montella’s squad hosts a radically revamped Italian side in Bursa on September 28, 2026, with both teams fighting to salvage their UEFA Nations League A campaigns after opening-round defeats.[3][4]

Italy arrives at the Atatürk Spor Kompleksi reeling from a 2-0 home loss to Belgium on Friday, a harsh welcome back for returning manager Roberto Mancini. Turkey, meanwhile, suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to France in Izmit, leaving both Group A1 contenders at zero points and desperate for a result.[2][3]

Mancini has responded to Italy's recent struggles by tearing down the old guard, handing maiden call-ups to nine new players for this international window. Brentford full-back Michael Kayode, Cagliari midfielder Alessandro Romano, and Sporting CP prospect Issa Doumbia represent a clear pivot toward youth as the Azzurri look to rebuild ahead of the 2026 World Cup cycle.[6]

The Italian manager was candid about the talent deficit his squad faces compared to previous eras. "Every team goes through different cycles, and at this moment Italy find themselves in a phase of renewal," Mancini told reporters at Coverciano. "We don't have a generation like that of Totti, Del Piero and other great champions of the past. Above all we need time to work, to get to know each other and to build a team that can be competitive."[1]

For Turkey, the challenge is overcoming significant absences. First-choice goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır is suspended following a red card against France, meaning Altay Bayındır is expected to step in between the posts. The hosts are also missing injured midfield maestro Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Juventus forward Kenan Yıldız, forcing Montella to rely heavily on Real Madrid teenager Arda Güler to orchestrate the attack.[4][5]

Despite the injuries, Montella has forged a resilient unit on home soil. Turkey has won nine of their last 13 matches in front of their own fans, and their defensive solidity kept a star-studded French side to a single goal last week. The manager, who made 20 appearances for Italy as a player, acknowledged the personal stakes of the fixture.[4]

"We also faced each other in a friendly match two years ago," Montella said during his pre-match press conference. "It's emotional for me, but I've been here for a long time. I've come to feel like one of you. Even though being Italian makes it emotionally difficult, when we take the field tomorrow, my heart will beat for Turkey."

Italy's backline will receive a much-needed boost with the return of Inter Milan defender Alessandro Bastoni, who served a one-match suspension during the Belgium defeat. However, Mancini remains without injured regulars Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante, and Manuel Locatelli, leaving Moise Kean to lead the line alongside emerging talents like Francesco Pio Esposito.[4]

The tactical battle pits Montella's likely 3-4-2-1 system against Mancini's transitional 4-3-3. With Italy historically dominating this fixture—nine wins and four draws—the pressure is squarely on the Azzurri to prove their new generation can execute on the road. According to Sports Mole data, Italy enters the match with a 45.4% win probability, while a Turkish victory sits at 33.2%.[3][4][5]

The midfield battle will likely dictate the outcome. With Turkey missing their primary controller in Çalhanoğlu and Italy lacking established veterans like Locatelli and Cristante, both sides will field makeshift engine rooms. If Arda Güler can find space between Italy's defensive lines, Turkey could exploit an Italian defense that looked vulnerable in transition against Belgium.[4][5]

When predicting the outcome, a narrow 1-1 draw appears the most likely result. While Italy boasts the historical advantage and a deeper squad on paper, Mancini's sweeping changes and reliance on uncapped youth make them vulnerable on the road. Turkey's formidable home record and Montella's tactical discipline should be enough to secure a point, even without their starting goalkeeper and key playmakers. Following Monday's clash, both sides will immediately pivot to their October 2 fixtures against France and Belgium.[6]