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Global emissions and climate targets

International assessments evaluate global progress toward greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals and critical warming thresholds.

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The United Nations has declared that a temporary overshoot of the 1.5-degree climate threshold is now mathematically unavoidable.From: UN Warns World Must Slash Emissions 18% in Four Years as 1.5C Limit Overshoot Becomes Inevitable

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Where things stand

  1. UN Emissions Gap Report Projects 2.8C Warming Trajectory Under Current Policies

    Key point: The UN warns that current climate policies put the world on track for 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100, making a temporary overshoot of the 1.5C target inevitable.

    The UN Environment Programme's 2026 Emissions Gap Report projects that current global climate policies will lead to 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. Even if all existing national pledges are fully implemented, temperatures are still expected to rise by 2.6C, far exceeding the goals of the Paris Agreement.

    The updated projections mark a deterioration from previous estimates, which the UN attributes in part to the United States withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and revised historical emission data. While global greenhouse gas emissions saw a slight overall dip in 2025, emissions specifically from fossil fuels continued to climb.

    The 2.8C trajectory builds on the UN's recent warning that overshooting the 1.5C limit is now unavoidable and that emissions must fall 18% by 2030 to minimize the damage. The report emphasizes that every fraction of a degree of warming significantly increases the risk of extreme weather events like floods, droughts, and wildfires.

    Sources:

Charts, maps and images

The new reduction benchmarks required to minimize the duration of the 1.5-degree overshoot.From: UN Warns World Must Slash Emissions 18% in Four Years as 1.5C Limit Overshoot Becomes Inevitable ·
Current national climate pledges leave the world on track for 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.From: UN Warns World Must Slash Emissions 18% in Four Years as 1.5C Limit Overshoot Becomes Inevitable ·
The UNEP pathway projects a temporary breach of 1.5°C before temperatures are brought back down by 2100.From: UN Environment Programme Concedes 1.5°C Breach, Outlines 'Overshoot, Peak, and Decline' Climate Strategy ·
Illustration: While the power sector has shown modest progress driven by solar energy, the global transition remains too slow to prevent an overshoot.From: UN Warns World Must Slash Emissions 18% in Four Years as 1.5C Limit Overshoot Becomes Inevitable ·
For front-line nations, the period spent overshooting the 1.5°C target carries immediate and irreversible consequences.From: UN Environment Programme Concedes 1.5°C Breach, Outlines 'Overshoot, Peak, and Decline' Climate Strategy ·

Timeline

October 2026

  1. International assessments evaluate global progress toward greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals and critical warming thresholds.
    1. UN Emissions Gap Report Projects 2.8C Warming Trajectory Under Current PoliciesKey point: The UN warns that current climate policies put the world on track for 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100, making a temporary overshoot of the 1.5C target inevitable.

September 2026

  1. UN Environment Programme Concedes 1.5°C Breach, Outlines 'Overshoot, Peak, and Decline' Climate Strategy

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