UN climate targets and emissions gap: live updates
International assessments evaluate global progress toward greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals and critical warming thresholds.
Updates
UN Emissions Gap Report Projects 2.8C Warming Trajectory Under Current Policies
Key point: The UN warns that current climate policies put the world on track for 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100, making a temporary overshoot of the 1.5C target inevitable.
The UN Environment Programme's 2026 Emissions Gap Report projects that current global climate policies will lead to 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. Even if all existing national pledges are fully implemented, temperatures are still expected to rise by 2.6C, far exceeding the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The updated projections mark a deterioration from previous estimates, which the UN attributes in part to the United States withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and revised historical emission data. While global greenhouse gas emissions saw a slight overall dip in 2025, emissions specifically from fossil fuels continued to climb.
The 2.8C trajectory builds on the UN's recent warning that overshooting the 1.5C limit is now unavoidable and that emissions must fall 18% by 2030 to minimize the damage. The report emphasizes that every fraction of a degree of warming significantly increases the risk of extreme weather events like floods, droughts, and wildfires.