New Poll Shows Democrat James Talarico Leading Ken Paxton by 5 Points in Texas Senate Race

Democrat James Talarico has opened a five-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the highly watched race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, according to a new survey released Tuesday. The result marks a significant moment in a contest that could determine control of the upper chamber. The poll, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR), shows the Austin state representative capturing 45 percent of likely voters compared to the state attorney general's 40 percent. Fourteen percent of voters remain undecided as the campaigns gear up for the final months of the general election cycle.[1][2][3][4]

The five-point margin represents Talarico's largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period, falling just outside the survey's 3.4-point margin of error. It also reflects a two-point bump for the Democrat since TPOR's previous survey in May. Paxton's campaign immediately dismissed the findings, pointing to the political background of the polling firm's leadership rather than engaging with the data itself. TPOR is directed by Luke Warford, a Democratic strategist who previously ran for the Texas Railroad Commission in 2022.[1][3][5]

Nick Maddux, a spokesman for Paxton's campaign, rejected the survey in a statement to Newsweek, questioning the partisan background of the pollster and arguing the numbers do not reflect the reality on the ground. The campaign maintains that internal metrics show a much more favorable environment for the Republican nominee. Despite the firm's Democratic ties, the underlying cross-tabs reveal potential warning signs for the GOP in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. The data suggests a shifting coalition that could make the state unusually competitive this November.[1][2][3]

A deeper look at the demographics shows Talarico holding a commanding lead among independent voters, with less than a quarter of independents saying they plan to vote for Paxton. Moderates also broke heavily for the Democrat, giving him a 34-point advantage among that crucial swing demographic. More surprisingly, the Democrat has carved out an edge among voters without a college degree—a demographic that has consistently favored Republicans in Texas and nationwide over the last decade. In a previous TPOR poll conducted in May, Paxton led that exact same group by a staggering 21 points.[1][5]

Racial demographics hewed closer to traditional partisan lines, though with stark margins that highlight the polarized nature of the electorate. Talarico dominates among Black voters, leading 71 percent to 8 percent, and Latino voters, where he holds a 66 percent to 20 percent advantage. Paxton maintains a strong lead among white voters, 53 percent to 33 percent. The driving force behind Talarico's momentum across these groups appears to be widespread economic anxiety. Forty-four percent of respondents ranked affordability as their single top priority in the 2026 election, outpacing immigration and healthcare.[1][3][5]

On that crucial metric of affordability, voters trust Talarico over Paxton to lower costs and improve their financial situations by a nine-point margin. Furthermore, respondents indicated they believe the Democrat better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans by a seven-point margin. The TPOR results arrive in the context of a genuinely competitive summer polling landscape that has consistently shown a tight race. While TPOR's Democratic ties warrant scrutiny, other independent surveys confirm the margin-of-error nature of the contest, suggesting that affordability concerns are genuinely resonating with the electorate.[1][3][5][6]

A late-June survey by the New York Times and Siena College found the two candidates deadlocked at 47 percent apiece, while a separate June poll from the University of Texas at Austin's Texas Politics Project had Paxton narrowly ahead, 43 percent to 42 percent. The race's dynamic was set in late May when Paxton, backed by former President Donald Trump, ousted incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a bitter and expensive Republican primary runoff. That primary fight left deep scars within the state's GOP establishment, forcing Paxton to spend the summer attempting to unify a fractured base.[1][2][6]

Democrats are betting that Paxton's history of legal controversies—including his 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled state House, though he was ultimately acquitted by the Senate—combined with Talarico's populist messaging, will finally break the GOP's three-decade stranglehold on Texas. For Paxton, the immediate task is consolidating the Republican base. The TPOR poll found that nearly one in five GOP voters remain undecided or plan to vote for Talarico, suggesting lingering fractures from the bruising primary against Cornyn. If Paxton cannot bring traditional Republicans back into the fold, Talarico's strength among independents could provide the exact coalition needed to flip the seat.[1][6]