Indonesian Wildfire Emissions Reach Global High Amid Severe El Niño Drought

Between September 1 and September 7, wildfires burning across Indonesia released 19.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The output accounted for more than a third of the global total for the week, pushing Indonesia past Russia as the world's largest source of fire emissions.

The highest concentrations of the fires are located in Kalimantan—the Indonesian portion of Borneo—and the eastern stretches of Sumatra. Emission intensity in these areas exceeded 1,500 kilograms per square kilometer, a rate 273 percent higher than the seasonal average.

The resulting smoke has severely degraded air quality across the region. In Pontianak, the capital of West Kalimantan, the air quality index reached 394 on September 9. Any reading above 300 is classified as hazardous to human health, prompting local authorities to monitor the spreading haze with growing concern.[3]

The intensity of the 2026 fire season is being driven by a "super-El Niño" weather pattern, which has brought punishing droughts and elevated temperatures to the archipelago. Mark Parrington, a senior scientist at the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, noted that while seasonal fires are expected, the current climate phenomenon has acted as a massive multiplier.

"It's much drier, it's hotter, and when there's ignition, these fires burn in a far more extreme way," Parrington said.

The severity of the emissions is heavily tied to the burning of tropical peatlands. When these wetland ecosystems are drained for agricultural use, such as palm oil and paper plantations, the water table drops and leaves the carbon-rich soil highly flammable.[1][2]

Unlike typical forest fires, peat fires can smolder underground for weeks at low temperatures. This makes them notoriously difficult to detect via satellite and hard to extinguish, allowing them to generate significantly more fine particulate matter and greenhouse gases than fires in dry ecosystems.[1][2]

The current trajectory is drawing comparisons to the catastrophic 2015 fire season, which was also fueled by a strong El Niño. During the first week of September 2015, Indonesian fires emitted 21.7 million tons of carbon dioxide, eventually leading to an estimated 100,000 excess deaths across Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.[1]

While the 2026 figures are currently tracking slightly below the 2015 record, researchers warn that the dry season is far from over. The fires are expected to continue burning and emissions to keep rising through the end of October, leaving the ultimate scale of the environmental and public health damage dependent on the duration of the El Niño conditions.[1]