Czech Senate Elections Deal Blow to Prime Minister Andrej Babis' Governing Coalition

When Prime Minister Andrej Babiš swept the Czech parliamentary elections in October 2025, his populist ANO movement appeared to have consolidated an unbreakable grip on the national electorate, dominating the lower house. One year later, the same voters returned to the polls for the upper house and delivered a starkly different verdict, shutting the governing coalition out of the chamber entirely and handing the pro-Western opposition a sweeping victory.[1][3]

In the weekend run-offs to fill one-third of the 81-seat Czech Senate, opposition parties secured a decisive mandate that preserves their institutional counterweight. The Mayors and Independents (STAN) party captured 10 of the 27 contested seats, including two won outright in the first round. The Civic Democrats (ODS) secured seven seats, expanding their influence despite defending only five mandates.[2][3]

For Babiš and his coalition partners, the outcome was an unmitigated electoral defeat. Despite advancing 13 candidates to the second round of voting, the ANO movement failed to win a single seat. "We certainly didn't expect that we wouldn't win a single Senate seat in this election," Babiš told reporters, describing the result as "catastrophic" for his party.[1][2]

The Senate in the Czech Republic does not dictate daily legislation, which remains the exclusive domain of the lower house where Babiš holds a comfortable majority. However, the upper chamber holds absolute veto power over constitutional amendments, electoral laws, and must approve all presidential appointments to the Constitutional Court.[1][3]

The opposition consolidates its firewall

By retaining firm control of the Senate, the opposition ensures that the populist government cannot unilaterally alter the country's foundational laws or reshape the judiciary. The combined ODS and TOP 09 parliamentary group is expected to grow to 31 members, cementing its status as the largest voting bloc in the upper chamber.[2][3]

STAN leader Vít Rakušan framed the results as definitive proof that his movement can successfully challenge ANO even in regions traditionally dominated by the prime minister's allies. In Česká Lípa, STAN-backed candidate Martin Půta overturned a first-round deficit to defeat his ANO rival, Jitka Volfová, capturing nearly 56 percent of the final vote.[2]

The Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL) successfully defended all three of their contested seats, while TOP 09 retained both of its mandates. The only significant casualty among the opposition forces was the Pirate Party, which lost its sole defending candidate and no longer holds any representation in the Senate.[2]

Voter turnout in the second round reached 21.12 percent, a figure that marks the highest participation rate for a Senate run-off since 2010. The first round, held concurrently with municipal elections on October 9 and 10, saw a turnout of 32.4 percent, reflecting a highly mobilized opposition base.[2]

A referendum on the ruling coalition

The Senate vote served as the first national electoral test for Babiš since he formed a new government with two smaller, hard-right factions in late 2025. The coalition's agenda has included controversial proposals to reduce military support for Ukraine and to push back against key European Union environmental and migration policies.[1][3]

Opposition campaigns heavily targeted this platform, framing the Senate races as a necessary defense of the country's pro-Western orientation and democratic institutions. Candidates directly linked to the opposition parties ultimately won 22 of the 27 available seats, leaving ANO's total Senate faction stranded at just 14 lawmakers.[1][3]

Babiš has promised that his movement will analyze the electoral losses, but he insisted the government will not abandon its legislative program. Among the coalition's immediate priorities is a highly contested plan to overhaul the funding mechanism for the Czech Republic's public broadcasters, a move critics warn will compromise editorial independence.[2][3]

Critics of the broadcasting overhaul argue it is designed to exert political pressure on independent media, a strategy that the opposition-controlled Senate is now guaranteed to scrutinize heavily. While the upper house cannot permanently block standard legislation, it can delay bills and force the lower house to expend political capital to override its vetoes.[1][3]

Structural hurdles for the populist right

The complete shutout of ANO candidates in the run-offs highlights a persistent structural weakness for the populist movement in two-round majoritarian electoral systems. While ANO frequently secures pluralities in the first round of voting, opposition voters consistently unite behind whichever alternative candidate advances to the second round.[1][2]

This dynamic was evident across multiple districts, where candidates from STAN, ODS, and independent coalitions defeated ANO nominees by wide margins. In Cheb, Příbram, and Kolín, STAN candidates Miroslav Plevný, Petr Štěpánek, and Michael Kašpar defeated their ANO opponents with more than 70 percent of the run-off vote.[2]

The results also stabilize the leadership of the Senate itself, ensuring continuity in its foreign policy posture. Miloš Vystrčil of the ODS is now heavily favored to remain the president of the upper chamber, a role he has used to advocate for strong diplomatic ties with Taiwan and robust support for the Ukrainian military.[2][3]

The political landscape in Prague now enters a phase of entrenched institutional division. The lower house remains firmly under the control of a populist coalition determined to reshape the state, but the upper house stands as an emboldened fortress for the pro-European opposition, armed with the constitutional tools to block systemic changes.[1][3]