WMO Forecasts 'Exceptional' El Niño to Persist Through February 2027, Driving Global Heat

Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific surged between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above average in mid-August 2026, prompting the World Meteorological Organization to issue an unprecedented climate alert on Thursday.[1]

The United Nations weather agency announced a near 100 percent likelihood that the current El Niño phenomenon will persist through February 2027. This marks the first time the organization has expressed such absolute certainty in its seasonal outlook, driven by oceanic heat that continues to build rather than dissipate.[1][2][3]

"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes," United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement accompanying the forecast. "The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."[2][3]

The phenomenon, characterized by the weakening of trade winds and the eastward spread of warm water across the Pacific, typically lasts up to 12 months. However, the current system is drawing on immense thermal reserves; WMO data shows that subsurface ocean temperatures in some regions were more than 8 degrees Celsius above average during July and early August 2026.[1][3]

That deep-water heat provides a massive energy source that will sustain the event well past its expected peak late this year. As a result, the WMO projects that the atmospheric impacts will continue to warp global weather patterns deep into 2027.[1][2]

"If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva. "So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades."[3]

The prolonged El Niño threatens to severely disrupt rainfall distribution worldwide. Forecasters warn of an elevated risk of intense droughts in regions like Latin America and Southeast Asia, while simultaneously increasing the likelihood of catastrophic flooding and typhoons in other vulnerable corridors.[3][4]

Because the ocean releases its stored heat into the atmosphere slowly, the most severe global temperature spikes historically lag behind the peak of the El Niño event itself. This delayed release mechanism means the residual heat from the 2026 warming phase will largely dictate the global climate baseline next year.[1][3]

Guterres emphasized that while El Niño is a naturally occurring cycle, its effects are compounding the baseline warming caused by human activity. "The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people," he said. "We must win that race."[2]

In response to the near-certain forecast, the WMO has directed national meteorological and hydrological services to immediately accelerate their disaster preparedness protocols. The agency is prioritizing early-warning systems to help agricultural, energy, and health sectors adapt before the most severe anomalies materialize in early 2027.[1][3]