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CBO Forecasts US Budget Deficit to Hit $1.9 Trillion, Pushing Debt-to-GDP Past 100% in 2026

The United States recorded a $1.99 trillion budget shortfall for fiscal 2026, a 12 percent increase driven by rising debt service and mandatory program spending. Net interest payments surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, consuming more than a fifth of all federal tax revenues.

Factlen Newsroom· Updated

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The Treasury Department confirmed the U.S. federal budget deficit reached $1.99 trillion for fiscal year 2026.From: US Federal Budget Deficit Expands to $1.99 Trillion in Fiscal 2026 on Surging Interest Costs

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Key numbers

$1.9 trillion
Projected FY2026 federal deficit
120%
Projected debt-to-GDP ratio by 2036
5.8%
Deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2026
$1.0 trillion
Projected net interest costs in 2026
4.6%
Projected interest payments as a share of GDP by 2036

From: CBO Forecasts US Budget Deficit to Hit $1.9 Trillion, Pushing Debt-to-GDP Past 100% in 2026

Charts, maps and images

Federal outlays outpaced revenues by nearly $2 trillion in fiscal 2026.From: US Federal Budget Deficit Expands to $1.99 Trillion in Fiscal 2026 on Surging Interest Costs ·
The federal deficit has expanded significantly over the past two decades, peaking during the pandemic.From: US Federal Budget Deficit Expands to $1.99 Trillion in Fiscal 2026 on Surging Interest Costs ·
Mandatory entitlements and debt service now dominate federal outlays.From: US Federal Budget Deficit Expands to $1.99 Trillion in Fiscal 2026 on Surging Interest Costs ·
Projected growth of the US debt-to-GDP ratio over the next decade.From: CBO Forecasts US Budget Deficit to Hit $1.9 Trillion, Pushing Debt-to-GDP Past 100% in 2026 ·
The structural gap between federal revenues and outlays in 2026.From: CBO Forecasts US Budget Deficit to Hit $1.9 Trillion, Pushing Debt-to-GDP Past 100% in 2026 ·
Congress faces mounting pressure to address the structural imbalance between tax receipts and mandatory spending.From: US Federal Budget Deficit Expands to $1.99 Trillion in Fiscal 2026 on Surging Interest Costs ·

Timeline

October 2026

  1. US Federal Budget Deficit Expands to $1.99 Trillion in Fiscal 2026 on Surging Interest Costs

August 2026

  1. CBO Forecasts US Budget Deficit to Hit $1.9 Trillion, Pushing Debt-to-GDP Past 100% in 2026