Emerson Poll: Texas Governor and Senate Races Now Toss-Ups Ahead of Midterms

Texas Democrats have spent decades chasing a statewide victory, pointing to demographic shifts and tightening margins, while Republicans have consistently maintained their grip on power when the votes are counted. That tension is now peaking three months before the 2026 midterms. A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey reveals that the state's two highest-profile races—for U.S. Senate and the governor's mansion—are effectively toss-ups, signaling a highly competitive final stretch in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.[1][2]

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic State Representative James Talarico are deadlocked. Paxton holds 47 percent support among likely voters, while Talarico sits at 46 percent, placing the race well within the poll's three-point margin of error. Five percent of voters remain undecided.[1][2]

The gubernatorial contest is similarly tight, though the Republican incumbent maintains a slight edge. Governor Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by four points, 49 percent to 45 percent, with four percent undecided. The margins in both races underscore a shifting electorate and present the most credible threat to Republican statewide dominance in recent election cycles.[1][2][3]

For Paxton, the results represent a stabilization of his campaign following a volatile summer. After defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a bruising May primary runoff, Paxton trailed Talarico in several independent surveys throughout June and July. The Emerson poll marks the first time in nearly two months that Paxton has edged ahead in a non-partisan survey, indicating he has successfully consolidated the Republican base that was fractured during the primary.[2]

The Senate race exposes a stark generational divide among Texas voters. Talarico commands a 15-point lead among voters under 50, securing 53 percent to Paxton's 38 percent. Conversely, voters over 50 break for Paxton by an 11-point margin, 53 percent to 42 percent. This age gap highlights the differing coalitions each candidate is relying on to secure a victory in November.[1][4]

Demographic cross-sections further illustrate the structural challenges facing both parties. Hispanic voters, a crucial and growing bloc in Texas, show significant dissatisfaction with current Republican leadership. According to the Emerson data, 57 percent of Hispanic voters disapprove of Governor Abbott, and 58 percent disapprove of former President Donald Trump. Consequently, this demographic breaks for the Democratic candidates by wide margins—favoring Talarico by 19 points and Hinojosa by 17 points.[1]

Independent voters are also playing a decisive role in tightening the margins. Talarico has seen a surge in support from unaffiliated voters, leading Paxton by 37 points among this group in the Emerson survey. However, Paxton offsets this deficit with a strong performance among male voters, where he holds a six-point advantage, while Talarico leads among women by only a single point.

The tightening polls have injected new momentum into Democratic fundraising and prediction markets. For the first time this cycle, political betting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket briefly flipped in favor of Talarico, giving him a 51 to 53 percent chance of winning the Senate seat. While prediction markets are distinct from traditional polling, the shift reflects growing external confidence in the competitiveness of the race.[3]

Despite the favorable polling for Democrats, the structural advantages in Texas still heavily favor Republicans. Governor Abbott possesses a massive financial war chest, with his principal campaign committee reporting over $67 million in cash on hand, compared to Hinojosa's roughly $3 million. This financial disparity will allow Abbott and allied Republican groups to dominate the airwaves in the final months of the campaign.[2]

The broader political environment also remains a factor. While the economy is the top issue for 30 percent of Texas voters, immigration ranks second at 19 percent—an issue that traditionally favors Republicans in the state. Furthermore, former President Trump won Texas by double digits in 2024, and his enduring popularity among the state's conservative base provides a significant tailwind for down-ballot Republicans like Paxton and Abbott.[1][3][4]

As the campaigns enter the fall sprint, both parties face clear imperatives. Democrats must translate their polling momentum and demographic advantages among young and Hispanic voters into concrete turnout. Republicans, meanwhile, must rely on their financial dominance and historical structural advantages to hold off the most serious statewide challenge they have faced in a generation.[2][3]