Italy v Turkey — UEFA Nations League

Pre-match win probability — Pulse estimate

Italy 65%Draw 22%Turkey 14%

Pulse model at kickoff, scaled by each side's scoring rate in this competition's own table. An estimate, not a betting market.

Match stats

ItalyTurkey

45Possession55

15Shots14

6Shots on target5

2Shots off target5

7Blocked shots4

12Shots inside box7

3Shots outside box7

3Corners9

5Offsides0

11Fouls9

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

4Saves3

451Passes554

394Accurate passes496

Match events

26′Gianluca Scamacca
42′Gianluca Scamacca
47′Matteo Ruggeri
55′Zeki Çelik
55′Giovanni Di Lorenzo → Michael Kayode
56′Matteo Ruggeri → Riccardo Calafiori
56′Gianluca Scamacca → Francesco Esposito
61′Aral Şimşir (assist Eren Elmalı)
64′Riccardo Calafiori (assist Nicolo Barella)
70′Nicolo Barella → Sandro Tonali
70′İrfan Can Kahveci ← Bartuğ Elmaz
70′Aral Şimşir ← Ilhan Fakili
79′İsmail Yüksek ← Kerem Aktürkoğlu
81′Abdülkerim Bardakcı
84′Antonio Vergara → Davide Frattesi
87′Francesco Esposito (assist Alessandro Romano)
88′Yunus Akgün ← Deniz Gül
88′Ferdi Kadıoğlu ← Oğuz Aydın

Italy · Turkey

Starting XI · as it played — Ratings are a Pulse estimate

Italy3-6-1

187.5↓70'Barella

236.8Mancini

16.8Donnarumma

66.8Bastoni

226.8↓55'Lorenzo

117.5↓56'Scamacca

176.8Maldini

36.5↓56'Ruggeri

216.8↓84'Vergara

156.8Doumbia

47.5Romano

Turkey5-2-3

15.9Çakır

106.3↓70'Kahveci

146.0Bardakcı

26.0Çelik

156.3Kabak

56.3Özcan

206.3↓88'Kadıoğlu

166.3↓79'Yüksek

137.1Elmalı

196.3↓88'Akgün

217.3↓70'Şimşir

Lineups — ratings are a Pulse estimate

Italy

18Nicolo Barella7.5
23Gianluca Mancini6.8
1Gianluigi Donnarumma6.8
6Alessandro Bastoni6.8
22Giovanni Di Lorenzo6.8
11Gianluca Scamacca7.5
17Daniel Maldini6.8
3Matteo Ruggeri6.5
21Antonio Vergara6.8
15Issa Doumbia6.8
4Alessandro Romano7.5

Turkey

1Uğurcan Çakır5.9
10İrfan Can Kahveci6.3
14Abdülkerim Bardakcı6.0
2Zeki Çelik6.0
15Ozan Kabak6.3
5Salih Özcan6.3
20Ferdi Kadıoğlu6.3
16İsmail Yüksek6.3
13Eren Elmalı7.1
19Yunus Akgün6.3
21Aral Şimşir7.3

ItalyTale of the tapeTurkey

3-6-1Formation5-2-3

DWLDLFormLLLWW

1Head-to-head wins0

65%Win chance14%

Head to head — 1 previous meeting

Italy 1W0D0W Turkey

Goals 4–1

2026-09-28Turkey1–4Italy

Seasons searched: 2024-2025, 2026-2027.

Recent form — Last five, before this fixture

Italy

DWLDL

@France1-1
@Turkey4-1
vsBelgium0-2
@Germany3-3
vsGermany1-2

Turkey

LLLWW

@Belgium0-3
vsItaly1-4
vsFrance0-1
@Hungary3-0
vsHungary3-1

This season — other meeting

Turkey1–4Italy

Related coverage — from the newsroom