Alaves vs Osasuna

Who takes this top-four La Liga clash? The underlying metrics point to a grinding 1-1 draw, but if a victor emerges at Mendizorroza, it will be Alavés finally snapping a two-decade curse against their regional rivals. Both Deportivo Alavés and CA Osasuna step onto the pitch on Sunday afternoon boasting seven points from three matches, transforming a routine Matchday 4 fixture into a high-stakes battle for early European positioning.[2][4]

Quique Sánchez Flores has turned Alavés into a defensive fortress with genuine counter-attacking teeth. The Basque outfit has conceded just a single goal in 270 minutes of football, opening their 2026-27 campaign with a 3-0 dismantling of Getafe, drawing Rayo Vallecano 1-1, and grinding out a statement 1-0 victory over Champions League regulars Villarreal last weekend. Sitting fourth in the table, El Glorioso are enjoying their best start to a top-flight season since 2001-02—a year they ultimately finished seventh.[2][7]

Osasuna have matched that blistering pace stride for stride under Luis Miguel Ramis. After a goalless opening draw against Levante, Los Rojillos edged Celta Vigo 2-1 on the road and then dispatched Getafe 1-0 courtesy of an Ante Budimir penalty. Like their hosts, they have allowed only one goal this season, relying on a disciplined 4-2-3-1 shape that has suffocated passing lanes and restricted opponents to a mere four shots on target across three games.[1][2]

"Alavés is an uncomfortable team that presses, orderly and rigorous," Osasuna manager Luis Miguel Ramis noted in his pre-match press conference. "They are playing with two forwards who give a lot of work and force you to pay a lot of attention and concentration."

The tactical battle will be decided in the air and on the flanks, as Alavés deliberately funnel play out wide, having already attempted 61 crosses and earned 17 corners this season. Osasuna center-back Alejandro Catena, who is currently winning 54.1 percent of his aerial duels, will be tasked with clearing that relentless barrage.[1][6]

History, however, heavily favors the visitors. Osasuna are unbeaten in their last 13 La Liga meetings with Alavés, a dominant streak featuring nine wins and four draws. In fact, the hosts have not beaten Los Rojillos in a home league match since 2000, failing to even score a goal in six of their last ten defeats to them.[3]

Injuries will force a critical reshuffle for the home side's attack. Alavés striker Toni Martinez, who has been in blistering form, suffered an injury against Villarreal and is ruled out until mid-September. Mariano Diaz, who already has two goals in three appearances this term, is expected to step into the starting XI to partner Lucas Boyé up front.[2][5]

Osasuna will lean heavily on Budimir, who possesses a devastating track record in this specific fixture. The veteran forward has recorded at least two shots on target in his last seven appearances against Alavés, finding the back of the net in six of those matches. He remains the focal point of an attack that has generated 4.98 expected goals (xG) so far this season.[1][5]

Despite Osasuna's historical dominance, modern predictive models give the edge to the hosts. Dimers' machine learning simulation assigns Alavés a 40.1 percent chance of taking all three points, compared to 31.7 percent for Osasuna and a 28.2 percent chance of a draw. The most likely exact scoreline, however, remains a 1-1 stalemate at 13.2 percent.[4]

The stakes are unusually high for early September. Both clubs finished in the bottom half of the table last year—Alavés in 14th and Osasuna surviving a relegation scare by virtue of goal difference—so banking points now changes the entire trajectory of their seasons. The winner of this match will temporarily leapfrog into the top three of La Liga, proving their blistering start is a sustainable reality rather than a fleeting run of form.[2][3]