AnalysisStandingsAFLJul 7, 2026, 4:29 AM· 3 min read· #12 of 12 in sports

Essendon and Port Adelaide Surge Into Wildcard Contention as Historic 10-Team AFL Race Tightens

Crucial Round 17 victories for Essendon and Port Adelaide have blown the inaugural AFL wildcard race wide open, creating an unprecedented mid-season logjam for the final playoff spots.

By Factlen Editorial Team

Wildcard Hopefuls 40%Top-Tier Contenders 30%AFL Traditionalists 30%
Wildcard Hopefuls
Believe the expanded format rewards late-season form and resilience.
Top-Tier Contenders
Focused on securing top-four safety to avoid the unpredictability of the expanded wildcard weekend.
AFL Traditionalists
Skeptical that expanding the post-season to ten teams dilutes the value of the regular season.

What's not represented

  • · Players' Association representatives discussing the physical toll of an extended sudden-death run.
  • · Broadcast executives analyzing the commercial success of the new wildcard format.

Why this matters

The AFL's expansion to a 10-team finals format in 2026 was designed to keep more fanbases engaged later into the year. With a massive bottleneck forming between 7th and 14th place, the league's gamble has paid off, guaranteeing high-stakes, playoff-intensity football every weekend through August.

Key points

  • The AFL's new 10-team finals format has created a massive mid-season logjam for the final playoff spots.
  • Port Adelaide defeated North Melbourne 10.13 (73) to 7.10 (52) to stay in the wildcard hunt.
  • Essendon secured a gritty, low-scoring victory over St Kilda at Marvel Stadium.
  • The 7th through 10th placed teams will compete in a sudden-death Wildcard Round during the pre-finals bye.
  • Over a dozen clubs remain mathematically alive for the post-season heading into Round 18.
21 points
Port Adelaide's winning margin over North Melbourne
10
Teams that will qualify for the expanded 2026 post-season
71
Free kicks awarded in the scrappy Port Adelaide vs. North Melbourne clash

The Australian Football League's historic decision to expand its post-season to ten teams has transformed the traditional mid-season lull into an absolute frenzy. Following a pivotal Round 17, the race for the inaugural 'Wildcard' spots has become a massive bottleneck, with Essendon and Port Adelaide surging back into contention after gritty weekend victories.[2][3]

While the top of the ladder appears relatively settled—with Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn, and Geelong separating themselves as the clear premiership frontrunners—the middle of the table is a mathematical logjam. Clubs sitting from fifth all the way down to fourteenth are separated by just a few wins, making percentage points and head-to-head tiebreakers more critical than ever.[2]

Under the new 2026 format, the teams finishing seventh through tenth will face off during the pre-finals bye weekend. The seventh seed will host the tenth seed, and the eighth seed will host the ninth, with the two winners advancing to the traditional finals proper. This expanded lifeline has kept hope alive for fanbases that would normally be turning their attention to the draft by early July.[3]

The AFL's new 10-team post-season format has kept over a dozen clubs mathematically alive late into the season.
The AFL's new 10-team post-season format has kept over a dozen clubs mathematically alive late into the season.

Port Adelaide capitalized on that lifeline on Sunday evening, grinding out a crucial 21-point victory over North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval. In a highly physical, stop-start contest that saw a near-record 71 free kicks awarded, Josh Carr's men managed to outlast the Kangaroos 10.13 (73) to 7.10 (52).[1][5]

Port Adelaide capitalized on that lifeline on Sunday evening, grinding out a crucial 21-point victory over North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval.

The match was deadlocked at three-quarter time before the Power found another gear, kicking the only three goals of the final term. Key forwards Mitch Georgiades, who booted three goals, and Jack Whitlock, who added two in quick succession, provided the crucial scoreboard separation. The win not only broke an Adelaide Oval hoodoo for Port Adelaide but also snapped North Melbourne's recent three-game winning streak.[1][5]

Port Adelaide ground out a physical 21-point victory over North Melbourne to stay in touch with the top ten.
Port Adelaide ground out a physical 21-point victory over North Melbourne to stay in touch with the top ten.

Meanwhile at Marvel Stadium, Essendon kept their own wildcard dreams firmly intact with a hard-fought victory over St Kilda. In a match characterized by immense defensive pressure rather than free-flowing scoring, the Bombers embraced a "win is a win" mentality, securing the four premiership points necessary to stay pace with the surging pack.[4]

The results leave the ladder in a state of unprecedented late-season volatility. Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Brisbane, GWS, Collingwood, Essendon, and Port Adelaide are all mathematically alive and fiercely contesting the final six available post-season slots.[2][6]

Looking ahead to Round 18, the stakes continue to compound. St Kilda will host Port Adelaide in a match that could make or break the Saints' fading hopes, while Essendon faces a daunting road trip to The Gabba to take on the Brisbane Lions. With the new 10-team system ensuring that nearly every fixture carries finals implications, the AFL's gamble on expanding the post-season appears to be delivering exactly the drama the league envisioned.[3][6]

How we got here

  1. October 2025

    The AFL officially announces the expansion of the finals series to include a 10-team Wildcard Round for the 2026 season.

  2. March 2026

    The 2026 AFL Premiership Season kicks off, with clubs adjusting their long-term strategies to account for the expanded playoff race.

  3. July 5, 2026

    Port Adelaide and Essendon secure crucial Round 17 victories, tightening the bottleneck between 7th and 14th place on the ladder.

Viewpoints in depth

Wildcard Hopefuls

Clubs sitting mid-table believe the expanded format rewards late-season form and resilience.

For teams like Essendon, Port Adelaide, and Collingwood, the 10-team format is viewed as a necessary evolution of the league. Supporters and club management argue that injuries and early-season slumps shouldn't completely derail a campaign by June. By keeping the door open for the 9th and 10th seeds, these clubs feel the format rewards teams that can find their best form and get healthy at the right time, ensuring that the final month of the home-and-away season remains highly competitive rather than a procession of dead rubbers.

Top-Tier Contenders

The league's elite teams are focused on avoiding the unpredictability of the expanded wildcard weekend.

For the clear frontrunners like Fremantle, Sydney, and Hawthorn, the expanded finals system is simply another obstacle to navigate. Their primary objective is securing a top-four finish, which guarantees a double-chance in the traditional finals structure and completely bypasses the chaotic Wildcard Round. Coaches in this bracket emphasize consistency and percentage-boosting wins, knowing that a slip-up could plunge them into the volatile sudden-death environment of the lower half of the eight.

AFL Traditionalists

Purists remain skeptical that expanding the post-season to ten teams dilutes the value of the regular season.

A vocal contingent of traditional fans and analysts argue that allowing more than half the league (10 out of 18 teams) into the post-season rewards mediocrity. They point to the fact that a team with a losing record could theoretically win the premiership if they string together enough upset victories in September. However, even the staunchest critics concede that the format change has achieved its primary commercial goal: keeping stadium attendances high and television ratings strong throughout the traditionally sluggish winter months.

What we don't know

  • How the intense physical toll of fighting for a wildcard spot will impact teams if they actually reach the finals proper.
  • Whether the AFL will consider tweaking the wildcard format in 2027 if a team with a losing record manages to qualify.

Key terms

Wildcard Round
A newly introduced pre-finals weekend where the 7th-placed team plays the 10th, and the 8th plays the 9th, with the winners advancing to the traditional finals.
Premiership Points
The points awarded for match results in the AFL; teams receive four points for a win and two for a draw.
Percentage
A crucial tie-breaking metric on the AFL ladder, calculated by dividing the total points a team has scored by the total points they have conceded.
Dead Rubber
A late-season match between two teams that have already been mathematically eliminated from finals contention, carrying no stakes for the post-season.

Frequently asked

How does the new AFL Wildcard Round work?

In 2026, the teams finishing 7th through 10th on the ladder will play in a sudden-death weekend during the pre-finals bye. The 7th seed hosts the 10th seed, and the 8th seed hosts the 9th, with the winners advancing to the main finals bracket.

Who did Port Adelaide beat in Round 17?

Port Adelaide defeated North Melbourne by 21 points (73 to 52) at Adelaide Oval, breaking a tight three-quarter-time deadlock with three unanswered goals in the final term.

Why is the middle of the AFL ladder so congested?

The combination of the expanded 10-team playoff format and a highly competitive season has kept teams from 5th down to 14th place separated by only a few wins, meaning almost every late-season game has finals implications.

Sources

Source coverage

6 outlets

3 viewpoints surfaced

Wildcard Hopefuls 40%Top-Tier Contenders 30%AFL Traditionalists 30%
  1. [1]AFL.com.auAFL Traditionalists

    Power grind out win over Roos to break Adelaide Oval hoodoo

    Read on AFL.com.au
  2. [2]Fox SportsTop-Tier Contenders

    AFL 2026: Run Home predicted ladder, eight teams fighting for six finals spots

    Read on Fox Sports
  3. [3]The RoarAFL Traditionalists

    AFL draw & fixtures 2026: Wildcard Round introduced

    Read on The Roar
  4. [4]Footy AlmanacWildcard Hopefuls

    Round 17 – Essendon v St Kilda: A win is a win

    Read on Footy Almanac
  5. [5]North Melbourne FCWildcard Hopefuls

    Roos fall short in scrappy Adelaide Oval clash

    Read on North Melbourne FC
  6. [6]LadbrokesTop-Tier Contenders

    2026 AFL Round 17 Tips & Predictions

    Read on Ladbrokes
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